Real Time Economics has been tracking the progression of the Beveridge Curve, named after the economist William Henry Beveridge, that tracks the relationship between the job openings rate and the unemployment rate.
With so many jobs available, more people ought to be finding their way to work. An openings rate above 3% has historically meant that the unemployment rate was below 5%, more than a full percentage point away from where it sits today. The curve has not healed to where it was before the recession.
Why are job openings not doing more to reduce unemployment? One reason may be that large recessions often disrupt the traditional relationship between openings and unemployment, and that with time this will heal. After all, the relationship appears significantly closer to normal today than it did at the end of the recession in 2009.
But another school of thought says that some unemployed workers may lack the skills to assume the openings or, put another way, that employers are unwilling to train applicants so that they can fill the available roles. This suggests the economy may have suffered at least some structural damage that will take longer than normal to heal.
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at An Updated Look at the Beveridge Curve: A Step Away from Normal – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
In an article on Thursday’s front page, I wrote about how long job vacancies are taking to fill, especially when you consider the abundance of unemployed workers. Economists have been thinking about this issue for a couple of years now thanks to a shift in what is known as the Beveridge Curve. No, the Beveridge … Continue reading
When trying to determine if high unemployment is being caused by weak demand or by a mismatch between jobs and the skills of job seekers, economists look at the Beveridge Curve. It represents the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. On a simple chart, vacancies are on the vertical axis and unemployment … Continue reading
We could think of the US labor markets as consisting of two distinct pools of workers: skilled and unskilled. And while the unskilled workers are leaving the labor force, the skilled labor market is starting to tighten. Thats part of the reason for the persistent mismatch between job openings and the unemployment/marginal employment rate – … Continue reading
Long-Term Unemployed in US – Only 11 percent have returned to steady, full-time employment a year later
In “Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?” Alan B. Krueger, Judd Cramer, and David Cho of Princeton University find that even after finding another job, reemployment does not fully reset the clock for the long-term unemployed, who are frequently jobless again soon after they gain reemployment: only 11 percent … Continue reading
Unemployment in Europe / Worsening labour market matching and growing structural unemployment in a number of countries writes EC
There is evidence of worsening labour market matching and growing structural unemployment of persistent nature in a number of countries, notably those mostly affected by current account reversals and debt crises. Upward changes in structural unemployment rates appear to be mostly driven by persistently lower job finding rates ensuing from worsened labour market matching across skills and sectors, and an increased duration of unemployment spells the Commission concludes. Continue reading
When an economy is humming, there are lots of job openings and low unemployment. When the economy is malfunctioning, there are few openings and unemployment is high. The regular relationship between job openings and unemployment is called the Beveridge Curve. If the curve shifts outward it means that a given level of job openings is associated … Continue reading
The rate of short-term unemployment—six months or less—is almost back to normal. In January it was 4.9 percent of the labor force. That’s only 0.7 percentage point above its 2001-07 average. But the rate of long-term unemployment, 3 percent in January, is precisely triple its 2001-07 average, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek calculation based on Bureau of Labor … Continue reading
US unemployment seems stuck at an unusually high level of 8%, prompting some to suggest a widespread skills mismatch. This column argues that a skills mismatch is not supported by the evidence. Rather, out of the possible explanations, it seems that any shift in the ratio between unemployment and vacancies is driven by either lower … Continue reading
Since the onset of the Great Recession, there has been a change in the relationship between the unemployment rate and vacancy rate in the U.S.” write Bart Hobijn and Aysegul Sahin in Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession on frbsf.org. (Choosen excerpts by JMM to follow) This relationship, summarized by the Beveridgecurve, was remarkably … Continue reading
Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate reveals a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Study
“We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate” write Aysegul Sahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni L. Violante in Mismatch Unemployment on newyorkfed.org. How much did mismatch contribute to the dynamics of U.S. unemployment around the Great Recession? To address this question, we … Continue reading