Recession

This tag is associated with 123 posts

How to Tell if a Recession is Coming – A measure that focuses on the unemployment rate

Experts from the Hamilton Project observe that two traditional methods of noting when recessions have started—waiting for an announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research or observing GDP to decline over two consecutive quarters—“are appropriate for historical analysis but too slow to be useful for policy.” Instead, they explain a measure developed by economist … Continue reading

Recession in US – Most NABE economists expect it by the end of 2021

“Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the shift in monetary policy, and most expect the next economic recession will occur later than anticipated when the February policy survey was conducted,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, CBE, chief economist, KPMG. “Of the 98% of respondents who believe a recession will come after … Continue reading

Recessions in UK – Persistent scarring effects on employment and earnings

This paper estimates the effects of entering the labour market when the economy is weak on subsequent living standards using consistent long-running household survey data from the UK. In line with previous research, we find persistent scarring effects on employment and earnings. However, we also provide the first estimates of impacts on net household incomes … Continue reading

Canada – In recession as economic growth shrank for a second quarter in a row

Canada’s economy contracted by an annualized 0.5 percent in the second quarter, according to Statistics Canada data on Tuesday, indicating a recession in the first half of the year. The second-quarter downturn was less than the 1.0 percent decline forecast by economists, and followed a more deeply revised contraction of 0.8 percent in the first … Continue reading

Alberta – it’s going to be very hard to avoid a recession this year Conference Board of Canada’s chief economist says

With 0il prices plunging almost 6o per cent and job cuts mounting within companies like Suncor Energy and Shell Canada, the spectre of recession has suddenly emerged in Alberta. After gushing about the “superstar” local economy at a speech in Calgary last November, the Conference Board of Canada’s chief economist, Glen Hodgson, ominously warned this week that “it’s going to be very … Continue reading

Economists may be too optimistic about the recovery path of output following recessions says FRB analysis

The economic collapse in the wake of the global financial crises (GFC) and the weaker-than-expected recovery in many countries have led to questions about the impact of severe downturns on economic potential. Indeed, for several major economies, the level of output is nowhere near returning to pre-crisis trend (figure 1). Such developments have resulted in … Continue reading

Economic crisis has led to crisis in the field of macroeconomics writes Lawrence Summers

Economic crisis has led to crisis in the field of macroeconomics. The idea that depressions were a concept of only historic interest has been belied by the financial crisis and “Great Recession”. Figures 1a and 1b depicts the gap between actual and potential output estimated as of various dates for both the US and the … Continue reading

Beveridge Curve “Shift” in US – There is no shift to begin with says Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Observers have followed the Beveridge curve during the recession and the recovery to glean some insight into potential structural changes in the labor market. Whether or not a shift implies an actual structural change—specifically, a decline in the matching efficiency of the labor market—is still debatable. However, one thing is clear: there is no shift … Continue reading

Europe – Facing a fresh downturn

Six years after being struck by economic crisis, Europe is facing a fresh downturn, with few new ideas on the table for reigniting growth and deepening political divisions over the austerity policies that many blame for worsening the malaise… “Europe is at risk of secular stagnation,” said Lawrence H. Summers, a former United States Treasury … Continue reading

Brazil After The World Cup – In recession

Brazil’s economy slipped into recession for the first time in more than five years as investments contracted on lower confidence before the October presidential election. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.6% in the April-June period from the previous three months, after contracting a revised 0.2% in the first quarter, the national statistics agency said … Continue reading

Europe – Nobel economists say policy blunders pushing it into depression

An array of Nobel economists have launched a blistering attack on the eurozone’s economic strategy, warning that contractionary policies risk years of depression and a fresh eruption of the debt crisis. “Historians are going to tar and feather Europe’s central bankers,” said Professor Peter Diamond, the world’s leading expert on unemployment. “Young people in Spain … Continue reading

Europe – The recession is really a depression

Eurozone GDP still hasnt gotten back to its 2007 level, and doesnt look like it will anytime soon. Indeed, it already wasnt clear if its last recession was even over before we found out the eurozone had stopped growing again in the second quarter. And not even Germany has been immune: its GDP just fell 0.2 percent … Continue reading

UK – The recovery is over as the comes economy back at pre-crisis level

Key points (ONS) Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP increased by 0.8% in Q2 2014, the second consecutive quarter on quarter increase of 0.8%. Output increased in two of the four main industrial groupings within the economy in Q2 2014 compared with Q1 2014. In order of … Continue reading

Financial Crisis and Jobs – The current Job Recovery in US outperforms other

When comparing the Great Recession against other advanced economies’ financial crises in recent decades, the current U.S. cycle has outperformed in terms of employment, even as most other measures of financial crises were just as bad — home prices, stock prices, GDP per capita, government debt and the like.   Chosen excerpts by Job Market … Continue reading

UK – Antidepressant use soared during the recession with 12.5m more pills prescribed in 2012 than in 2007

The use of antidepressants rose significantly in England during the financial crisis and subsequent recession, with 12.5m more pills prescribed in 2012 than in 2007, a study has found.  Researchers from the Nuffield Trust and the Health Foundation identified a long-term trend of increasing prescription of antidepressants, rising from 15m items in 1998 to 40m … Continue reading

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