Business

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Job Report in US (June 2020) – Employment rose by 4.8 million, still down nearly 14.7 million jobs since February, and unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts … Continue reading

COVID and Job Report in US (April 2020) – Employment fell by 20.5 million in one month

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent,the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of thecoronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors,with particularly heavy job losses in … Continue reading

COVID – Scenarios of the economic impact

Amid the fast-moving pandemic and the policy responses, economic forecasting has become an unusually uncertain enterprise. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, for example, canceled the March release of its forward-looking composite leading indicator. Forecasts in this period must be looked upon with robust skepticism. Moody’s Investors Service, one of the most respected forecasting … Continue reading

COVID and Jobs in US – A second sound of layoffs has begun

The first people to lose their jobs worked at restaurants, malls, hotels and other places that closed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Higher skilled work, which often didn’t require personal contact, seemed more secure. That’s not how it’s turning out. A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses … Continue reading

COVID in UK – Office for Budget Responsibility warns of 35% fall GDP and unemployment up to 10%

Evidence from past pandemics suggests that the economic impact of the coronavirus will arise much less from people falling ill or dying than from the public health restrictions and social distancing required to limit its spread. This will reduce demand for goods and services and the ability of businesses and public sector institutions to supply … Continue reading

COVID and Unemployment in US – 33 percent of voters have already lost their job survey finds

The financial impact of the coronavirus is hitting Americans hard: thirty-three percent of voters have already lost their job, been furloughed, placed on temporary leave, or had hours reduced, with 41 percent of those who’ve lost a job already reporting having trouble covering basic costs. Black Americans are feeling the worst of the financial crisis … Continue reading

COVID and Jobs in Europe – Getting back to work

In this article, we describe how European policy makers and business leaders can think about how to prioritize both protecting lives and restoring livelihoods. Even in countries where lockdowns are unlikely to be lifted for several weeks, governments and companies need to be planning and preparing to restart their economies. We start from three observations: … Continue reading

COVID and the Economy in US – JPMorgan now sees economy contracting by 40%, and unemployment reaching 20%

JPMorgan economists cut their second-quarter forecast even more, now expecting the economy will decline by 40%. The economists said the 16.8 million jobless claims filed in the last three weeks indicate a huge surge in job losses, which they estimate at 25 million in April. A number of Wall Street firms expect contractions in the … Continue reading

COVID Economic Shock of Coronavirus – Examining the shape (V, U or L ?)

The concept of a recession is binary and blunt. All it says is that expectations have flipped from positive to negative growth, at least for two consecutive quarters. We think the bigger scenario question revolves around the shape of the shock — what we call “shock geometry” — and its structural legacy. What drives the … Continue reading

Job Report in Canada, March 2020 – With only partial impact of COVID, employment fell by more than one million

Employment fell by more than one million in March (-1,011,000 or -5.3%). The employment rate—or the proportion of people aged 15 and older who were employed—fell 3.3 percentage points to 58.5%, the lowest rate since April 1997. Of those who were employed in March, the number who did not work any hours during the reference week (March 15 to 21) increased by 1.3 million, while the number … Continue reading

COVID in – More jobs lost than US did during the Depression

While we wait to get a clearer picture of the health coronavirus curve in India, we already have the first estimate of the job-destruction caused by the nation-wide lockdown. The numbers are staggering, worse than anything the world has ever known. More jobs were lost in India in the last two weeks than anything ever … Continue reading

COVID in China – The worst job market in 20 years

China faces its worst job market in more than two decades, with tens of millions of people temporarily without work or unemployed in the first three months of 2020 and the number of jobs set to shrink by more than 10 million this year, according to UBS Group AG economists. About 70-80 million people in … Continue reading

COVID and the Economy – Could it be that the operation was successful but the patient died ?

In a typical business cycle, as money and credit expand in the economy, a surge in inflation eventually followed, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates in an effort to cool down the economy and control inflation. This typically led to a recession. This recession, or possibly depression, is government-induced as non-essential businesses remain closed … Continue reading

COVID – How is it impacting the global economy?

Every component of aggregate demand – consumption, capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented free fall. While most self-serving commentators have been anticipating a V-shaped downturn – with output falling sharply for one quarter and then rapidly recovering the next – it should now be clear that the COVID-19 crisis is something else entirely. The … Continue reading

Jobs after COVID in US – Retooled for the Twenty-First Century?

In my 2016 book, Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy, I told the story of how economic globalization caught the United States off-guard. For most of our history, we were a reasonably self-sufficient economy, with an expanding domestic market that was more than large enough to exploit economies of … Continue reading

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