Business

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Job Report in US (August 2020) – Employment rose by 1.4 million and unemployment fell to 8.4 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In August, an increase … Continue reading

COVID-19 Downturn in UK – What can previous recessions tell us ?

Understanding what we can and cannot learn from previous recessions is important for the current downturn- there are some similarities, but also some marked distinctions. The starkest difference is the occurrence of a discrete, immediate lockdown of some sectors. This contrasts with the archetypical recession in which economic activity slows down continuously, as firms shut … Continue reading

Covid and Change in Payroll Employment by Sector in US – A chart

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @ Hutchins Roundup: Student debt, consumer spending, and more

Job Market in Canada – Still has long way to go despite jobs bounce says CIBC’s Benjamin Tal

CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal speaks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about the latest Canadian unemployment numbers, and what might happen as the government transitions CERB recipients into an updated EI program.

Job Report in Canada (July 2020) – Employment rose by 419,000 (+2.4%), within 1.3 million (-7.0%) of its pre-COVID February level

Employment continues to rebound in July From February to April, 5.5 million Canadian workers were affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown. This included a drop in employment of 3.0 million and a COVID-related increase in absences from work of 2.5 million. Employment rose by 419,000 (+2.4%) in July, compared with 953,000 (+5.8%) in June. Combined with gains of 290,000 in May, this brought employment to within 1.3 million (-7.0%) of … Continue reading

Job Report in US (July 2020) – Employment rose by 1.8 million and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, up by 6.7 percentage points since February

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In … Continue reading

Job Report in US (June 2020) – Employment rose by 4.8 million, still down nearly 14.7 million jobs since February, and unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts … Continue reading

COVID and Job Report in US (April 2020) – Employment fell by 20.5 million in one month

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent,the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of thecoronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors,with particularly heavy job losses in … Continue reading

COVID – Scenarios of the economic impact

Amid the fast-moving pandemic and the policy responses, economic forecasting has become an unusually uncertain enterprise. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, for example, canceled the March release of its forward-looking composite leading indicator. Forecasts in this period must be looked upon with robust skepticism. Moody’s Investors Service, one of the most respected forecasting … Continue reading

COVID and Jobs in US – A second sound of layoffs has begun

The first people to lose their jobs worked at restaurants, malls, hotels and other places that closed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Higher skilled work, which often didn’t require personal contact, seemed more secure. That’s not how it’s turning out. A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses … Continue reading

COVID in UK – Office for Budget Responsibility warns of 35% fall GDP and unemployment up to 10%

Evidence from past pandemics suggests that the economic impact of the coronavirus will arise much less from people falling ill or dying than from the public health restrictions and social distancing required to limit its spread. This will reduce demand for goods and services and the ability of businesses and public sector institutions to supply … Continue reading

COVID and Unemployment in US – 33 percent of voters have already lost their job survey finds

The financial impact of the coronavirus is hitting Americans hard: thirty-three percent of voters have already lost their job, been furloughed, placed on temporary leave, or had hours reduced, with 41 percent of those who’ve lost a job already reporting having trouble covering basic costs. Black Americans are feeling the worst of the financial crisis … Continue reading

COVID and Jobs in Europe – Getting back to work

In this article, we describe how European policy makers and business leaders can think about how to prioritize both protecting lives and restoring livelihoods. Even in countries where lockdowns are unlikely to be lifted for several weeks, governments and companies need to be planning and preparing to restart their economies. We start from three observations: … Continue reading

COVID and the Economy in US – JPMorgan now sees economy contracting by 40%, and unemployment reaching 20%

JPMorgan economists cut their second-quarter forecast even more, now expecting the economy will decline by 40%. The economists said the 16.8 million jobless claims filed in the last three weeks indicate a huge surge in job losses, which they estimate at 25 million in April. A number of Wall Street firms expect contractions in the … Continue reading

COVID Economic Shock of Coronavirus – Examining the shape (V, U or L ?)

The concept of a recession is binary and blunt. All it says is that expectations have flipped from positive to negative growth, at least for two consecutive quarters. We think the bigger scenario question revolves around the shape of the shock — what we call “shock geometry” — and its structural legacy. What drives the … Continue reading

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