Job Market Monitor
Unemployment
Job Report in Canada, August 2019 – Employment increased by 81,000 and unemployment remained at 5.7%
Following three consecutive months of little change, employment increased by 81,000 in August, largely in part-time work. The unemployment rate remained at 5.7% as more people participated in the labour market. Compared with August 2018, employment increased by 471,000 (+2.5%), the result of gains in both full- (+306,000 or +2.0%) and part-time work (+165,000 or +4.8%). Over the same period, hours worked were … Continue reading
Job Report in Europe, July 2019 – Unemployment at 7.5% in euro area with 3.195 million young persons unemployed in EU28
The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.5% in July 2019, stable compared with June 2019 and down from 8.1% in July 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since July 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.3% in July 2019, stable compared with June 2019 and down from 6.8% … Continue reading
US – The noninflationary unemployment rate threshold have declined toward 4% in recent years
Unemployment is running near its 50-year low, but inflation has not picked up as expected. This suggests that the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation has fallen. Combining a conventional Phillips curve tradeoff between unemployment and inflation with a noninflationary unemployment rate that can change over time shows that estimates of this unemployment threshold have … Continue reading
The Phillips Curve – Yes, there is a trade-off
The Phillips curve is unstable and, therefore, an imperfect guide for policy. But unstable does not mean nonexistent, and imperfect does not mean useless. As long as the tools of monetary policy influence both inflation and unemployment, monetary policymakers must be cognizant of the trade-off. Mr. Powell was smart to acknowledge during his congressional hearing … Continue reading
Job Report in Canada, July 2019 – Employment was little changed for the third consecutive month and unemployment up to 5.7%
Employment was little changed for the third consecutive month in July. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7% as more people searched for work. Compared with July 2018, employment was up by 353,000 (+1.9%), driven by gains in full-time work (+326,000 or +2.2%). Over the same period, hours worked increased by 0.7%. To explore the most recent results from the … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – What about the Phillips Curve ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999– 2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer … Continue reading
Job Report in Canada, April 2019 – Employment rose by 107,000 and unemployment at 5.7%, historically low in Quebec
Employment rose by 107,000 in April, with notable gains in part-time work for youth. The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7% as more people participated in the labour market. On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 426,000 (+2.3%), with gains in both full-time (+248,000) and part-time (+179,000) work. Over the same period, total hours worked were up 1.3%. Employment up … Continue reading
Job Report in US, April 2019 – Employment rebounds with a 263,000 increase and at 3.6 percent, the lowest rate since December 1969
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. Household Survey Data The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.6 percent in … Continue reading
Annual Review of Labour market in Canada, 2018 – Record-low unemployment rate
Canada’s record-low unemployment rate was one of several notable labour market trends in 2018. While the overall labour force participation rate continued to decrease, in keeping with the aging population, it reached a record high 83.2% among women in the core working ages of 25 to 54. The long-term trend of increasing labour force participation for people aged 55 and older was … Continue reading
Job Report in US, March 2019 – Employment increased by 196,000 and unemployment unchanged at 3.8 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Household Survey Data The unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent in March, and the number of … Continue reading
Job Report in Canada, March 2019 – Employment held steady and unemployment remained unchanged at 5.8%
Following increases in January and February, employment held steady in March. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%. In the first quarter of 2019, employment rose by 116,000 (+0.6%). On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 332,000 (+1.8%), with gains in both full- (+204,000) and part-time (+128,000) work. Over the same period, total hours worked rose by 0.9%. Highlights Employment increased in … Continue reading
Unemployment in Europe, February – 6.5%, lowest rate since 2000, with 3.309 million young persons (7.8% in Euro area)
The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8% in February 2019, stable compared with January 2019 and down from 8.5% in February 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since October 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.5% in February 2019, stable compared with January 2019 and down from 7.1% … Continue reading
Job Openings in US – Increased to 7.6 Million in January with more of them than people unemployed for the eleventh consecutive month
In January there were 7.581 million job openings, and, according to the January Employment report, there were 6.535 million unemployed. So, for the eleventh consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (4 years). Chosen excerpts … Continue reading
Refugees in Canada – Labour market outcomes varied considerably over the last three decades
Canada welcomed over 830,000 refugees from 1980 to 2009. Although not selected for economic reasons, the success of refugees in the labour market is an essential element of their long-term integration into Canadian society. A new Statistics Canada study finds that the labour market outcomes of refugees from 13 countries varied considerably over the last three decades. To date, little information has … Continue reading
Job Report in Canada, February 2019 – Employment grew for a second consecutive month, up 56,000
Employment grew for a second consecutive month, up 56,000 in February, driven by gains in full-time work. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% as the number of people searching for work held steady. In the 12 months to February, total employment grew by 369,000 or 2.0%, reflecting increases in both full- (+266,000) and part-time (+103,000) work. Over the same period, total hours … Continue reading
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