Job Market Monitor
Unemployment
Covid and Unemployment in US – Broader measures of labor market underutilization
We know that tens of millions of people are currently out of work in the United States. More than 26 million workers filed for unemployment benefits between mid-March and mid-April alone. The most popular measure of the strength of the labor market is the unemployment rate. Forecasts for how much it will rise in the … Continue reading
Job Report in US (November 2020) – Employment rose by 245,000 and unemployment edged down to 6.7
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, … Continue reading
Job Report in US (October 2020) – Employment rose by 638,000 and the unemployment declined by 1.0 percentage point to 6.9
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, … Continue reading
Labor market Structural Damage in in US – fraction of the unemployed whose previous jobs have been permanently eliminated has increased from 10 percent to about 40 percent
In this analysis, we find evidence of structural damage in the monthly employment data. Early in the pandemic, most workers who lost jobs were laid off temporarily, as businesses expected to reopen and recall their workers. However, as time has passed, an increasing share of unemployed workers have no expectation of being recalled: the fraction … Continue reading
Job Report in Europe (September 2020) – Unemployment at 8.3% with 15.990 million and 2.995 million young persons (under 25), stable compared with August 2020
In September 2020, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.3%, stable compared with August 2020 and up from 7.5% in September 2019. The EU unemployment rate was 7.5% in September 2020, stable compared with August 2020 and up from 6.6% in September 2019. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the … Continue reading
Job Report in US (August 2020) – Employment rose by 1.4 million and unemployment fell to 8.4 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In August, an increase … Continue reading
Job Market in Canada – Still has long way to go despite jobs bounce says CIBC’s Benjamin Tal
CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal speaks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about the latest Canadian unemployment numbers, and what might happen as the government transitions CERB recipients into an updated EI program.
Job Report in Canada (July 2020) – Employment rose by 419,000 (+2.4%), within 1.3 million (-7.0%) of its pre-COVID February level
Employment continues to rebound in July From February to April, 5.5 million Canadian workers were affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown. This included a drop in employment of 3.0 million and a COVID-related increase in absences from work of 2.5 million. Employment rose by 419,000 (+2.4%) in July, compared with 953,000 (+5.8%) in June. Combined with gains of 290,000 in May, this brought employment to within 1.3 million (-7.0%) of … Continue reading
Job Report in US (July 2020) – Employment rose by 1.8 million and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, up by 6.7 percentage points since February
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In … Continue reading
Unemployment in Europe (June 2020) – 7.8% in the the euro area with 2.962 million young persons (under 25)
In June 2020, the month when COVID-19 containment measures started being phased out in most Member States, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8%, up from 7.7% in May 2020. The EU unemployment rate was 7.1% in June 2020, up from 7.0% in May 2020. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US and Europe – The large drop in US core inflation is fully accounted for by sharply higher unemployment but it still a genuine puzzle in the Euro zone
• The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, … • something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.” • Rising unemployment and weak demand are now pushing inflation down, … • though low inflation does not mean that something is automatically “missing.” • We update our Phillips curve … Continue reading
Employment Outlook 2020 – Unemployment will remain high into 2021, more so should a second pandemic wave hit says OECD
Unemployment is projected to reach nearly 10% in OECD countries by the end of 2020, up from 5.3% at year-end 2019, and to go as high as 12% should a second pandemic wave hit. A jobs recovery is not expected until after 2021. And now must keep up support while building resilience Help those in … Continue reading
UI Claims in US (week ending June 27) – 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level
In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week’s revised average. … Continue reading
Job Report in US (June 2020) – Employment rose by 4.8 million, still down nearly 14.7 million jobs since February, and unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts … Continue reading
COVID and Unemployment in US – Those without a college degree have experienced the most severe impact
Since COVID-19 hit the United States, more than 20 million American workers have become unemployed and countless others have left the labor force altogether. While the labor market disruptions have affected workers in a wide set of industries and occupations, those without a college degree have experienced the most severe impact. Addressing gaps in educational … Continue reading
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