Job Market Monitor
Beveridge curve
Beveridge Curves – Once the labor market crosses back over the threshold, further reductions in inflation are likely to be more costly
This paper reexamines the Phillips and Beveridge curves to explain the inflation surge in the U.S. during the 2020s. We argue that the pre-surge consensus regarding both curves requires substantial revision. We propose that the Inverse-L (INV-L) New Keynesian Phillips Curve replace the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The INV-L curve is piecewise-linear and more … Continue reading
Job Openings and the Beveridge Curve in US – It shifted further outward during and after the COVID-19 pandemic
What are job openings? Using a sample of 16,000 employers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) measures the number of people who have left their jobs. JOLTS also counts the number of positions for which employers are actively recruiting and would start within 30 days of hire. The number … Continue reading
Beveridge Curve and Covid in US – It has shifted substantially outward since the start of the pandemic
The ratio of job vacancies to hiring is at an all-time high, and in line with the hiring difficulties highlighted by many employers. The Beveridge Curve, which captures the negative relationship between the job opening rate and the unemployment rate, has shifted substantially outward since the start of the pandemic. As a result, a given … Continue reading
US – The rightward shift in the Beveridge curve
One feature of how the labor market looks different from before the Great Recession is captured in the Beveridge curve relationship, as shown here (vacancy rate vs. unemployment rate): We’re interested in the Beveridge curve, in part because the relationship falls out of conventional Mortensen-Pissarides search models of the labor market. In that model, we … Continue reading
Skills Gap in US – The case of construction workers
Homebuilders have had a difficult time finding labor. This might sound odd considering that 1.5 million construction workers lost their jobs during the recession and only about 80,000 construction jobs have been added back since the recovery began, says Bank of America’s Michelle Meyer. To get a better sense of the health of the construction … Continue reading
IT – Jobs being matched with job seekers less efficiently than in the past
Expanding use of technology that uses ultra-specific criteria to screen and winnow candidates may be perpetuating one of the most unusual features of the slow rebound in the U.S. labor market: Despite a steady increase in openings since the recession ended in 2009, these positions are being matched with job seekers less efficiently than in … Continue reading
Mismatches in US – Something happened in 2008
Something happened in 2008: the Beveridge Curve shifted to the right and stayed that way. That means employers aren’t hiring as many unemployed people as they should be, according to a pre-2008 view of the world. It is also one of the reasons the economy feels like it is still bad, even though the recession … Continue reading
The Beveridge Curve in US – A worsening
Real Time Economics has been tracking the progression of the Beveridge Curve, named after the economist William Henry Beveridge, that tracks the relationship between the job openings rate and the unemployment rate. With so many jobs available, more people ought to be finding their way to work. An openings rate above 3% has historically meant … Continue reading
US – The Skills Gap
We could think of the US labor markets as consisting of two distinct pools of workers: skilled and unskilled. And while the unskilled workers are leaving the labor force, the skilled labor market is starting to tighten. Thats part of the reason for the persistent mismatch between job openings and the unemployment/marginal employment rate – … Continue reading
Long-Term Unemployed in US – Only 11 percent have returned to steady, full-time employment a year later
In “Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?” Alan B. Krueger, Judd Cramer, and David Cho of Princeton University find that even after finding another job, reemployment does not fully reset the clock for the long-term unemployed, who are frequently jobless again soon after they gain reemployment: only 11 percent … Continue reading
Unemployment in Europe / Worsening labour market matching and growing structural unemployment in a number of countries writes EC
There is evidence of worsening labour market matching and growing structural unemployment of persistent nature in a number of countries, notably those mostly affected by current account reversals and debt crises. Upward changes in structural unemployment rates appear to be mostly driven by persistently lower job finding rates ensuing from worsened labour market matching across skills and sectors, and an increased duration of unemployment spells the Commission concludes. Continue reading
US / Job openings and unemployment are both worsening
When an economy is humming, there are lots of job openings and low unemployment. When the economy is malfunctioning, there are few openings and unemployment is high. The regular relationship between job openings and unemployment is called the Beveridge Curve. If the curve shifts outward it means that a given level of job openings is associated … Continue reading
US / Labor Economics / Is the the Beveridge curve shifthing ?
When trying to determine if high unemployment is being caused by weak demand or by a mismatch between jobs and the skills of job seekers, economists look at the Beveridge Curve. It represents the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. On a simple chart, vacancies are on the vertical axis and unemployment … Continue reading
Mismatch shocks and the natural rate of unemployment
The authors estimate a DSGE model that features nominal rigidities and search frictions in the labor market. They evaluate the importance of mismatch shocks in accounting for the recent behavior of the Beveridge curve. Their fndings suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate during the Great Recession is mainly due to cyclical factors rather than to an increase in … Continue reading
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