Because the short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, one important implication—if the hypothesis that the long-term unemployed are largely on the margins of the labor market is correct—is that further declines in short-term unemployment would be expected to be associated with rising inflation and stronger real wage growth.
So has this trend continued to play out as expected over the past few months?
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Dow Jones Industrial Average, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: Short-Term Unemployment Is Plummeting | ETF DAILY NEWS.
US – Short and long-term unemployment exert equal downward pressure on price inflation says FEDS research
In the years following 2009, long-term unemployment has been very elevated while inflation has fallen only moderately, raising the question of whether the long-term unemployed exert less downward pressure on prices than the short-term unemployed, perhaps because such potential workers are disconnected from the labor market. However, empirical evidence is mixed. This analysis demonstrates that … Continue reading
Unemployment and Wages in the US – Long-term unemployed should not be strongly discounted from measures of slack research finds
Some have argued that the unemployment rate may overestimate labor market slack, because the long-term unemployed (LTU) are largely structurally unemployed and exert significantly less wage and price pressure. If so, then using the aggregate unemployment rate to forecast wage or price inflation may be misleading. However, this Note, along with the companion note showing … Continue reading
New research that examined joblessness in the early 2000s provides evidence that some of the problem might also be geography. A paper written by government and academic experts suggests that living near where the jobs are significantly reduces the amount of time it takes unemployed jobseekers to find work. The research found that to be especially true … Continue reading
Long-Term unemployed – A sharp drop-off in the number of interview requests for those whose nonemployment spell topped six months finds research
Three recent audit studies on nonemployment discrimination report results consistent with the long-term jobless having significantly lower chances of being invited to job interviews. Given the design of previous studies unfavorable treatment can be due to a marginal preference among employers for hiring applicants with shorter spells or to stronger negative beliefs about the long-term … Continue reading
US – Long-Term Unemployment is elevated across all education, age, occupation, industry, gender, and racial and ethnic groups
Long-term unemployment is elevated for workers at every education level. The table below provides additional breakdowns of long-term unemployment by age, gender, race/ethnicity, occupation, and industry. For each category, the table shows the long-term unemployment rate in 2007, the long-term unemployment rate in 2013, and ratio of the two. It demonstrates that while there is … Continue reading
Long-Term Unemployed in US – Only 11 percent have returned to steady, full-time employment a year later
In “Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?” Alan B. Krueger, Judd Cramer, and David Cho of Princeton University find that even after finding another job, reemployment does not fully reset the clock for the long-term unemployed, who are frequently jobless again soon after they gain reemployment: only 11 percent … Continue reading
This FRED graph divides unemployed (civilian) workers according to the duration of their unemployment spell. The number of those unemployed for 27 weeks or more is still very high, while the other categories have recovered to normal levels. This level of persistently elevated unemployment is different from that during previous recessions, and there may even … Continue reading
Evidence is mounting that the long-term unemployed aren’t merely the short-term unemployed with the addition of a little waiting time. They are in a very different situation – and an alarming one at that. Researchers in the US are setting the pace on this topic, because it is in America that a sharp and unique … Continue reading