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Indian Diaspora – From ‘brain drain’ to ‘brain gain’
The Indian diaspora consists of low- and semi-skilled migrants mainly to the Middle-East; migration of the highly-skilled to developed countries; and cross-border students who seek employment and remain in their host countries. India initially viewed the migration of the best educated from its prestigious institutions as ‘brain drain’. However, with the reverse flow of these … Continue reading
Robots and Jobs in Europe – The effects are generally larger in countries with low or average levels of labour costs
The use of robots has multiplied during the last two decades. Between 2000 and 2017, robot exposure, as measured by the number of industrial robots per 1,000 workers, has quadrupled in Europe as a whole; and it has doubled in Germany, which deploys the highest number of robots per worker in Europe. In high-income countries, … Continue reading
College Grads in US – About 50 percent of recent college graduates are living and working in the metro area nearest the institution they attended
A principal aim of colleges is to equip students with knowledge, skills, and connections that will lead to labor market success and future wellbeing. A clear understanding of the labor markets in which a college operates stands to inform institution-level decision-making as well as broader questions about links between college-going and economic development, mobility, and … Continue reading
Future of Work – Is the workforce ready ?
For many newly emerging jobs, labour-market mismatches prevail as workers and firms are unable to apply precise occupation taxonomies and training lags behind workforce needs. We report on how data can enable useful foresight about skill requirements and training needs, even when that data has not been collected for this express purpose. First, we show … Continue reading
Human Capital – A new macroeconomic measure with of PISA and PIAAC
Despite its fundamental role in modern economic growth theory, empirical work has struggled to find a satisfactory representation of human capital to explain macroeconomic variables. Traditionally, empirical work has used quantity-based measures (such as mean years of schooling), although there has been increasing recognition of the need to incorporate a ‘quality’ dimension (often based on … Continue reading
Inflation and the Phillips Curve in US – Why the flatness ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999–2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer prices. … Continue reading
Labor Market Fluidity and Wage Growth – Differences in labor market fluidity account for half of the faster wage growth experienced by high fluidity economies
Job-to-job labor market flows vary substantially across countries. In Labor Market Fluidity and Human Capital Accumulation (NBER Working Paper 29698), Niklas Engbom finds that greater labor market fluidity — more frequent job changes per worker—is associated with greater human capital accumulation as workers acquire new skills. Greater fluidity also allows workers to find jobs where … Continue reading
AI skills – The demand rose dramatically over 2010–2019 in the U.S. economy
Using detailed data on skill requirements in online vacancies, we estimate the demand for AI specialists across occupations, sectors, and firms. We document a dramatic increase in the demand for AI skills over 2010–2019 in the U.S. economy across most industries and occupations. The demand is highest in IT occupations, followed by architecture and engineering, … Continue reading
Immigrants during Recessions in Canada – Entering the labour market during a recession may also result in “scarring” effects
The labour market outcomes of recently arrived immigrants are often more negatively affected during recessions than those of the Canadian born. Entering the labour market during a recession may also result in “scarring” effects for both immigrants and Canadian-born workers. But the severity and characteristics of recessions vary significantly and may affect the outcomes of … Continue reading
Refugee Health Professionals in Germany – Challenges and strategies in labour market integration
The global healthcare workforce is facing skilled labour shortage. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates a global shortage of 14.5 million health professionals by 2030. The European Commission estimates a shortfall of 1 million health workers in Europe by 2020, and employment agencies in Germany predict a nationwide lack of health professionals. In order to address … Continue reading
The Great Demographic Reversal – A return of inflation, higher nominal interest rates, lessening inequality and higher productivity, but worsening fiscal problems
The rise of China to the status of economic superpower has been the dominant narrative of the last three decades. China’s rise as the main feature of globalisation, in conjunction with a beneficial sweet spot in demography, drove output up and inflation down in the advanced economies. But these trends are now reversing. China’s economic … Continue reading
Immigrants admitted to Canada as Children – They participate in postsecondary education more often than the overall population
Immigrants admitted as children participate in postsecondary education more often than the overall Canadian population, with those admitted at younger ages participating the most Participation in postsecondary education was relatively high for immigrants admitted to Canada before the age of 15. This observation is based on tax filers who were between the age of 18 … Continue reading
Aging and Immigration in Europe – In addition to their integration into the labor force, the human capital of migrants is thus also a major determinant of their economic impact
This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration … Continue reading
Gender Gap in Job Displacement – Women face growing higher earnings losses
Existing research has shown that job displacement leads to large and persistent earnings losses for men, but evidence for women is scarce. In fact, there is more research on how women react to their husband’s job loss than to their own. Using a sample of more than 80,000 displaced workers extracted from German administrative data, … Continue reading
AI and Jobs – No clear relationship but AI is linked to higher employment growth in IT occupations
Recent years have seen impressive advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and this has stoked renewed concern about the impact of technological progress on the labour market, including on worker displacement. This paper looks at the possible links between AI and employment in a cross-country context. It adapts the AI occupational impact measure developed by Felten, … Continue reading
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