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Future of Work – The macroeconomic consequences of digitalization
Computing power continues to grow at an enormous rate. Simultaneously, more and better data is increasingly available and Machine Learning methods have seen significant breakthroughs in the recent past. All this pushes further the boundary of what machines can do. Nowadays increasingly complex tasks are automatable at a precision which seemed infeasible only few years … Continue reading
Occupational Decline – What are the earnings and employment losses ?
What are the earnings and employment losses that workers suffer when demand for their occupations declines? To answer this question we combine forecasts on occupational employment changes, which allow us to identify unanticipated declines; administrative data on the population of Swedish workers, spanning several decades; and a highly detailed occupational classification. We find that, compared … Continue reading
Skills Gap in Europe – Skill shortages and skill mismatch
Labour markets are currently in a phase of cyclical recovery and undergoing structural transformation due to globalisation, demographic trends, advancing digital technologies and automation and changes in labour market institutions. Against this background, businesses increasingly report that the limited availability of skills poses an impediment to corporate investment. Genuine skill constraints can negatively affect labour … Continue reading
Overeducated Young Workers in Europe – The role of fields of study for vertical educational mismatch
In general, the term overeducation refers to a job match in which the educational level of the worker clearly exceeds the educational requirements of the job. In the terminology of labour economics, this is often considered a vertical skill mismatch, as opposed to horizontal mismatches (workers choosing jobs with requirements outside the scope of their … Continue reading
Job Polarisation in the UK – The large increase in graduate numbers contributed to it
The increasing ability of technology to replace workers in performing easier-to-codify “routine” tasks has been singled out in the literature as the main driver of “job polarisation”, i.e. the decline in the share of mid-pay mid-skill jobs observed in several developed countries. Recent contributions, however, have highlighted that the occupational wage patterns observed in many … Continue reading
Poverty – Breaking it through education : The Pathway program
A recent IZA Discussion Paper by Adam M. Lavecchia, Philip Oreopoulos and Robert S. Brown delivers encouraging evidence that comprehensive student support programs can indeed lead to meaningful, long-run labor market benefits, including higher employment rates and earnings and a reduced reliance on social assistance. Student support program in one of Toronto’s poorest community The … Continue reading
Aging – Likely a transitory phenomenon in high-income countries
Will the population of today’s high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that … Continue reading
Global Aging – The trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency
When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the … Continue reading
Education and Demography – The world population is likely to grow more slowly with United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (2015–2030)
This article is a discussion of the role of education in demography, and focuses specifically on efforts by Wolfgang Lutz and his team to add education as a fourth dimension to demographic projection models, after place, age, and sex. In this piece, I review a very important publication produced by the Wittgenstein Centre, World Population … Continue reading
Immigrant Entrepreneurs in US – A significantly stronger innovation performance
How do immigrants contribute to the U.S. economy? One relatively understudied dimension of immigrant activity is entrepreneurship. A recent IZA Discussion Paper by J. David Brown, John S. Earle, Mee Jung Kim, and Kyung Min Lee examines measures of innovation for firms owned by entrepreneurs who are foreign-born vs. U.S.-born. The data come from the … Continue reading
Emerging Occupations in Asia – Most new job titles are for highly-skilled positions that involve data and information and communication technology
This paper explores how technology affects labor market outcomes in Asia through the creation of new types of work. It investigates how workers’ characteristics can influence one’s chances of accessing emerging occupations—defined as occupation groups with new job titles. Comparisons of successive lists of the National Classification of Occupations in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and … Continue reading
Skills Returns in UK – Increasing for analytical skills and significantly negative for physical skills study finds
We present estimates of changes in skills utilisation and in the returns to skills in the UK for 2002-2016 using new measures of skills derived from a systematic and detailed matching between the US O*NET system and UK SOC. Over the period, there is strongly increasing utilisation of both analytical skills and interpersonal skills, and … Continue reading
Unemployment Benefits for Long-Term Unemployed in Germany – The “Hartz IV” reform has created at least one million additional jobs research finds
About 15 years ago, Germany implemented the Hartz labor market reforms. Since then German unemployment has dropped substantially (see Figure 1). The most controversial reform step was the so-called “Hartz IV” reform that reduced unemployment benefits for long-term unemployed. While macroeconomists agree that Hartz IV has reduced unemployment, there is no agreement by how much. … Continue reading
Productivity and Skills – Sectoral skills explain more than school attainment
The key source of modern economic growth is productivity growth which is ultimately determined by technological progress. Innovation and technological progress are driven by people’s knowledge and skills which, in turn, are fostered by education and by research and development activities (R&D). Education – by equipping individuals with knowledge and skills – enables workers to … Continue reading
Gig-Jobs in US – The rise is driven by earnings that are secondary and supplemental sources of income
New institutions and technologies have made it simpler for self-employed individuals to do work for firms and peers that could have previously only been done in an employment relationship. As a result, speculation has grown that traditional jobs in the United States will be replaced by “gig” or “freelance” work performed by self-employed workers acting … Continue reading
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