The idea that the so-called “demographic dividend” is coming to an end for China is not a new one. Yet not many people are sufficiently aware of the consequence of ageing (and shrinking) population. Population ageing poses a headwind to asset prices, real estate in particular. Population ageing is somewhat associated with lower inflation (if not downright deflation) and lower economic growth. All these seem to be totally opposite to some of the now-conventional wisdom that China’s growth potential will remain at 7-8% at least for another decade or two, or that China will be an “exporter of inflation”, so to speak, instead of a disinflationary force in the past decade or two.
Nicholas N. Eberstadt published a paper some months ago on global demographic trends to 2030. In his research, he noted that not only the Western developed world is ageing as we all knew, but also the emerging markets. “[T]he demographic constraints on many of today’s ‘emerging markets’ – rising economies such as China, Russia and India, the places that are widely expected to serve as increasingly important engines of global growth in the decades immediately ahead – are in any case both more serious and more intractable than is generally appreciated” (p. 17).
For China specifically, Nicholas N. Eberstadt even describe the situation as a “demographic version of ‘the perfect storm’” (p. 19), and that raises some serious questions (as we have done for the past 2 years, almost) on whether the conventional wisdom of a 7-8% growth per annum for another decade is realistic…
Wages are still climbing rapidly in China and many companies are having trouble filling jobs despite the sharp economic slowdown here—evidence of a structural shortage in the labor market that may help China adjust to slower growth without political instability and whet consumer appetites for foreign goods. Reflecting the tight labor market, wage income for … Continue reading»
China’s growth rate slowed for a sixth successive quarter to its slackest pace in more than three years, highlighting the need for more policy vigilance from Beijing even as signs emerge that action taken so far is beginning to stabilize the economy. Year-on-year growth of 7.6 percent in the second quarter was a whisker above … Continue reading »
China’s job market has started to show signs of stress, putting pressure on the government to intensify fiscal spending to prevent the economy from weakening further. Like politicians the world over, Chinese leaders’ biggest single economic worry is whether unemployment is under control, and analysts say the job outlook will help determine whether they launch … Continue reading »
Individuals from China and India make up one-fourth of total international students in the OECD region, a grouping of mostly developed nations. These students are also an important source of future labour migration, Paris-based think tank OECD said today. “The share of migrants from Asia among immigrants to OECD countries rose from 27 per cent … Continue reading »
China’s results in international education tests – which have never been published – are “remarkable”, says Andreas Schleicher, responsible for the highly-influential Pisa tests. These tests, held every three years by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, measure pupils’ skills in reading, numeracy and science. Pisa tests – the Programme for International Student Assessment … Continue reading »
The booming markets of India and China, where a new war for professional talent is hotting up, will see incredible opportunities for Western professionals, a noted marketing expert has said. “The new war for professional talent is hotting up like never before and will see huge and developing opportunities for westerners looking for jobs in … Continue reading »
The Global Skill Gap: 38 million to 40 million fewer workers with tertiary education than employers will need
Over the past three decades, as developing economies industrialized and began to compete in world markets, a global labor market started taking shape. As more than one billion people entered the labor force, a massive movement from “farm to factory” sharply accelerated growth of productivity and per capita GDP in China and other traditionally rural … Continue reading »
China’s factory sector shrank for an eighth straight month in June as export orders sentiment hit its weakest level since early 2009, according to a survey that indicates the country’s economic trough may extend well into the third quarter. The HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of China’s industrial activity, fell to … Continue reading »
A slowdown in China’s economy has not caused employment woes, officials have claimed, but they also warned of challenges as the country’s small companies are confronting growing difficulties. The country’s urban registered unemployment rate stood at 4.1 percent in the first three months of 2012, according to figures released on Wednesday by the Ministry of … Continue reading »