In the News

China – A demographic perfect storm is coming

The idea that the so-called “demographic dividend” is coming to an end for China is not a new one.  Yet not many people are sufficiently aware of the consequence of ageing (and shrinking) population.  Population ageing poses a headwind to asset prices, real estate in particular.  Population ageing is somewhat associated with lower inflation (if not downright deflation) and lower economic growth.  All these seem to be totally opposite to some of the now-conventional wisdom that China’s growth potential will remain at 7-8% at least for another decade or two, or that China will be an “exporter of inflation”, so to speak, instead of a disinflationary force in the past decade or two.

Nicholas N. Eberstadt published a paper some months ago on global demographic trends to 2030.  In his research, he noted that not only the Western developed world is ageing as we all knew, but also the emerging markets.  “[T]he demographic constraints on many of today’s ‘emerging markets’ – rising economies such as China, Russia and India, the places that are widely expected to serve as increasingly important engines of global growth in the decades immediately ahead – are in any case both more serious and more intractable than is generally appreciated”  (p. 17).

For China specifically, Nicholas N. Eberstadt even describe the situation as a “demographic version of ‘the perfect storm’” (p. 19), and that raises some serious questions (as we have done for the past 2 years, almost) on whether the conventional wisdom of a 7-8% growth per annum for another decade is realistic…

via China’s demographic perfect storm: the ultimate growth killer.

Related articles

China – Skills Gap May Ease Slowdown

POSTED BY  ⋅ JULY 16, 2012 ⋅ 2 COMMENTS

Wages are still climbing rapidly in China and many companies are having trouble filling jobs despite the sharp economic slowdown here—evidence of a structural shortage in the labor market that may help China adjust to slower growth without political instability and whet consumer appetites for foreign goods. Reflecting the tight labor market, wage income for … Continue reading»

China – Growth rate slowed for a sixth successive quarter

POSTED BY  ⋅ JULY 13, 2012 ⋅ 3 COMMENTS

China’s growth rate slowed for a sixth successive quarter to its slackest pace in more than three years, highlighting the need for more policy vigilance from Beijing even as signs emerge that action taken so far is beginning to stabilize the economy. Year-on-year growth of 7.6 percent in the second quarter was a whisker above … Continue reading »

China’s job market – Cracks are appearing

POSTED BY  ⋅ JULY 11, 2012 ⋅ 2 COMMENTS

China’s job market has started to show signs of stress, putting pressure on the government to intensify fiscal spending to prevent the economy from weakening further. Like politicians the world over, Chinese leaders’ biggest single economic worry is whether unemployment is under control, and analysts say the job outlook will help determine whether they launch … Continue reading »

25% international students in OECD region are from China or India

POSTED BY  ⋅ JUNE 28, 2012 ⋅ LEAVE A COMMENT

Individuals from China and India make up one-fourth of total international students in the OECD region, a grouping of mostly developed nations. These students are also an important source of future labour migration, Paris-based think tank OECD said today. “The share of migrants from Asia among immigrants to OECD countries rose from 27 per cent … Continue reading »

China education system is overtaking many Western countries

POSTED BY  ⋅ MAY 9, 2012 ⋅ 1 COMMENT

China’s results in international education tests – which have never been published – are “remarkable”, says Andreas Schleicher, responsible for the highly-influential Pisa tests. These tests, held every three years by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, measure pupils’ skills in reading, numeracy and science. Pisa tests – the Programme for International Student Assessment … Continue reading »

Reverse Brain Drain | India, China next destination

POSTED BY  ⋅ MAY 2, 2012 ⋅ LEAVE A COMMENT

The booming markets of India and China, where a new war for professional talent is hotting up, will see incredible opportunities for Western professionals, a noted marketing expert has said. “The new war for professional talent is hotting up like never before and will see huge and developing opportunities for westerners looking for jobs in … Continue reading »

The Global Skill Gap: 38 million to 40 million fewer workers with tertiary education than employers will need

POSTED BY  ⋅ JUNE 21, 2012 ⋅ 6 COMMENTS

Over the past three decades, as developing economies industrialized and began to compete in world markets, a global labor market started taking shape. As more than one billion people entered the labor force, a massive movement from “farm to factory” sharply accelerated growth of productivity and per capita GDP in China and other traditionally rural … Continue reading »

China – Factories production drops for an eighth consecutive month

POSTED BY  ⋅ JUNE 21, 2012 ⋅ 1 COMMENT

China’s factory sector shrank for an eighth straight month in June as export orders sentiment hit its weakest level since early 2009, according to a survey that indicates the country’s economic trough may extend well into the third quarter. The HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of China’s industrial activity, fell to … Continue reading »

China’s Job market | Small companies are confronting growing difficulties

POSTED BY  ⋅ APRIL 26, 2012 ⋅ LEAVE A COMMENT

A slowdown in China’s economy has not caused employment woes, officials have claimed, but they also warned of challenges as the country’s small companies are confronting growing difficulties. The country’s urban registered unemployment rate stood at 4.1 percent in the first three months of 2012, according to figures released on Wednesday by the Ministry of … Continue reading »

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Jobs – Offres d’emploi – US & Canada (Eng. & Fr.)

The Most Popular Job Search Tools

Even More Objectives Statements to customize

Cover Letters – Tools, Tips and Free Cover Letter Templates for Microsoft Office

Follow Job Market Monitor on WordPress.com

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Follow Job Market Monitor via Twitter

Categories

Archives

%d bloggers like this: