China’s working-age population shrank in 2012, marking the beginning of a trend that will accelerate over the next two decades and have profound implications for the world’s second-largest economy.
By the end of December China’s population aged between 15 and 59 was 937.27 m, a decrease of 3.45m from 2011, according to figures released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday. “In 2012 for the first time we saw a drop in the population of people of working age … We should pay great attention to this fact,” said Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics.
“There are different opinions on whether this means that the demographic dividend that has driven growth in China for many years is now coming to an end,” he added, noting that it was only the start of a long-term trend that would see steady decreases in the working age population each and every year between now and at least 2030.
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The effect of population growth on per capita GDP growth is negative in developing countries | Minh Quang Dao
Highlights (Freely quoted and adapted by Job Market Monitor) The study empirically examines the impact of the various dimensions of the demographic transition on per capita GDP growth in developing countries. Economists have often neglected the impact of fundamental demographic processes on economic growth. Bloom and Canning are among the few who explore the effect …Continue reading »
The idea that the so-called “demographic dividend” is coming to an end for China is not a new one. Yet not many people are sufficiently aware of the consequence of ageing (and shrinking) population. Population ageing poses a headwind to asset prices, real estate in particular. Population ageing is somewhat associated with lower inflation (if … Continue reading »
Canada and Europe are not alone in dealing with important demographic shifts. And worries about increasing recruitment problems, workforce shortages and skills gap are widespread. But there might be more critical situations. For instance, China is just beginning its huge demographic transition. In an article published on brookings.edu, Wan Feng qualifies China as a “demographic overachiever” and analyses … Continue reading »
The world‟s two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to … Continue reading »