Academic Literature

Participation in US – Much, but not all, of the decline since 2007 is structural says FED research

Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population.

In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in participation reflects cyclical weakness rather than structural factors, our overall assessment is that much – but not all – of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 is structural in nature. As a result, while we see some of the current low level of the participation rate as indicative of labor market slack, we do not expect the participation rate to show a substantial increase from current levels as labor market conditions continue to improve.

Capture d’écran 2014-09-25 à 09.12.07

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at FRB: FEDS Abstract 2014-64

Related Posts

Participation in US – Ongoing structural influences with some crowding out of job opportunities for young workers research finds

The evidence we present in this paper suggests that much of the steep decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 owes to ongoing structural influences that are pushing down the participation rate rather than a pronounced cyclical weakness related to potential jobseekers’ discouragement about the weak state of the labor market – in … Continue reading 

Participation in the US – The decline

Ageing and the workforce The largest single factor behind the decline is the ageing of the population. In order to understand how an ageing population affects overall labour force participation, it is helpful to look at the participation rates of different age groups. Figures 2 and 3 show the participation rate profiles for men and … Continue reading 

US – Since the final quarter of 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 65.9 percent to 62.8 percent says a White House report

Since the final quarter of 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 65.9 percent to 62.8 percent in the second quarter of 2014, a decline of 3.1 percentage points. In this report, the Council of Economic Advisers estimates that this 3.1 percentage point decline can be attributed to three main sources: About half … Continue reading 

Participation in US – About half of the decline is due to the aging of the population says a White House Report

Since the final quarter of 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 65.9 percent to 62.8 percent in the second quarter of 2014, a decline of 3.1 percentage points. In this report, the Council of Economic Advisers estimates that this 3.1 percentage point decline can be attributed to three main sources: About half … Continue reading 

US – Supply factors are driving down participation rate (demographics and increased incentives to drop out), not weak labor market demand writes BofA

[Bank of America’s analysis] contradicts the notion that a declining labor‐force participation rate reflects a weak economy because of weak labor demand. Labor demand is very strong relative to labor supply. Supply bottlenecks and wage pressures are in the early stage of picking up. That’s why businesses’ main complaint is the difficulty of finding qualified … Continue reading 

Us Older Workers Increasing Participation Rate – Why then aging is decreasing the overall rate ?

A frequent question is: “I’ve heard the participation rate for older workers is increasing, yet you say one of the reasons the overall participation rate has fallen is because people are retiring. Is this a contradiction?” Answer: This isn’t a contradiction. When we talk about an increasing participation rate for older workers, we are referring … Continue reading 

US – Labor Force Participation Rate Update

A significant decline in the participation rate had been expected, and probably half or more of the recent decline in the participation rate was due to changing demographics (and long term trends), as opposed to economic weakness. A few key long terms trends include: • A decline in participation for those in the 16 to … Continue reading 

Baby Boomers and Participation in US – The aging effect accounts for more than 40 percent of the decline

The United States is in the process of a dramatic demographic change – the rapid aging of the popula- tion – and that change has implications for the labor force participation and unemployment figures that we see every month. Since older people have lower labor force participation than the young, as more of the population … Continue reading 

Labor Force Participation in US / A Chart

The unemployment rate reached its Obama administration peak in October 2009, at 10 percent. Since then, it has fallen steadily, but unevenly, to its current low. The unemployment rate has fallen, though, partly because of people giving up looking for work. Those who are unemployed, but no longer looking for work, are not included in … Continue reading 

US Declining Labor Force Participation / Aging of the population not the only factor

The aging of the population is not the sole contributing factor in the decline in labor force participation since 2007, contrary to what some have suggested. The participation rate has declined for every age bracket below 54 years old. The effects of these declines can be seen in the figure below. For each age range, we have calculated … Continue reading 

Labor force projections to 2022 for the US / The overall labor force participation rate is expected to decline writes the BLS

Because of the decreasing labor force participation rate of youths and the prime age group, the overall labor force participation rate is expected to decline. The participation rates of older workers are projected to increase, but remain significantly lower than those of the prime age group. A combination of a slower growth of the civilian … Continue reading 

US / Declining labor force attachment and downward trends in unemployment and participation

The U.S. labor market witnessed two apparently unrelated secular movements in the last 30 years: a decline in unemployment between the early 1980s and the early 2000s, and a decline in participation since the early 2000s. Using CPS micro data and a stock-flow accounting framework, we show that a substantial, and hitherto unnoticed, factor behind … Continue reading 

US / Labor Force Participation Rate has declined to levels not seen in about 35 years or so, to about 63%

Said differently, the percent of people that are classified as actually being in the labor force, (either working or actively seeking work), has sunk to a level not seen since the late 1970s Continue reading

US / Less government revenue will come from the long-term side of declining Labor Force Participation Rate

When the LFPR drops by 0.1% it means that there will be 180,000 less workers filling the tax bucketContinue reading 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Jobs – Offres d’emploi – US & Canada (Eng. & Fr.)

The Most Popular Job Search Tools

Even More Objectives Statements to customize

Cover Letters – Tools, Tips and Free Cover Letter Templates for Microsoft Office

Follow Job Market Monitor on WordPress.com

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Follow Job Market Monitor via Twitter

Categories

Archives

%d bloggers like this: