Demographics – Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100

Modelling research published in The Lancet uses data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to project global, regional and national population changes over the next century.

Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.

Figure 1 Model fit for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50)

Figure 4 Map of the year that the net reproduction rate falls below the replacement level

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @  Global population in 2100