In this study, data from the Demosim microsimulation model are used to assess the labour force participation rate of Canadians in 2036 under various scenarios of population growth and participation rates by age. In addition, the article provides an overview of the ethnocultural characteristics of persons who will be in the labour force in 2036, as well as an overview of regional differences in the characteristics of the labour force that may exist in 2036.
- According to the reference scenario, the number of Canadians who will be in the Canadian labour force (including persons who are employed or unemployed) is expected to continue to increase, from 19.7 million in 2017 to 22.9 million in 2036.
- Regardless of the scenario, however, the overall participation rate is expected to decrease mainly because of population aging, from 66% in 2017 to 63% or less in 2036.
- In 2016, just over 1 in 4 working people (26%) were born outside Canada. By 2036, according to the reference scenario, this proportion could reach 1 in 3 working people (34%). The proportion of people belonging to visible minorities in the labour force is also expected to continue to increase.
- Labour force growth is expected to remain positive in most Canadian regions, with the possible exceptions of Thunder Bay and Sudbury, and the non-metropolitan regions of Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
- In 2017, there were four people in the labour force for every person not in the labour force aged 65 and over. By 2036, this ratio could be less than 3 to 1 nationally, and could be less than 2 to 1 in some regions in non-metropolitan areas of Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia; in metropolitan areas of Quebec except Montréal; and in the two metropolitan areas of Sudbury and Thunder Bay.
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at The labour force in Canada and its regions: Projections to 2036