Last year, two leading economists described a future in which humans come out ahead. But now they’ve declared a different winner: the robots.
The industry most affected by automation is manufacturing. For every robot per thousand workers, up to six workers lost their jobs and wages fell by as much as three-fourths of a percent, according to a new paper by the economists, Daron Acemoglu of M.I.T. and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University. It appears to be the first study to quantify large, direct, negative effects of robots.
The paper is all the more significant because the researchers, whose work is highly regarded in their field, had been more sanguine about the effect of technology on jobs. In a paper last year, they said it was likely that increased automation would create new, better jobs, so employment and wages would eventually return to their previous levels. Just as cranes replaced dockworkers but created related jobs for engineers and financiers, the theory goes, new technology has created new jobs for software developers and data analysts.
But that paper was a conceptual exercise. The new one uses real-world data — and suggests a more pessimistic future. The researchers said they were surprised to see very little employment increase in other occupations to offset the job losses in manufacturing. That increase could still happen, they said, but for now there are large numbers of people out of work, with no clear path forward — especially blue-collar men without college degrees.
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Evidence That Robots Are Winning the Race for American Jobs – The New York Times
Automation has become one of the major ongoing stories regarding the future of the American economy. What began with the rise of robots—and loss of jobs—across manufacturing industries is now a full blown threat to traditional jobs across all industries, salary bands, and education requirements. The effects are wide-reaching, no job may be safe. On … Continue reading
In tandem with the diffusion of computer technologies, labour markets across the OECD have undergone rapid structural transformation. In this paper, we examine i) the impact of technological change on labour market outcomes since the computer revolution of the 1980s, and ii) recent developments in digital technology – including machine learning and robotics – and … Continue reading
A broad area of agreement: People need to learn new skills to work in the new economy. “The best response is to increase the skills of the labor force,” said Gregory Mankiw, an economist at Harvard. The most valuable thing could be to increase college enrollment and graduation rates. A growing number of jobs require … Continue reading
For this report we used methodologies both from Oxford professors Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne and from management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, which have been employed in other jurisdictions, and applied them both to Canadian data for the first time. Read this report to help you: Understand the effects that automation can … Continue reading
Maybe the automation of jobs will eventually create new, better jobs. Maybe it will put us all out of work. But as we argue about this, work is changing. Today’s jobs — white collar, blue collar or no collar — require more education and interpersonal skills than those in the past. And many of the … Continue reading
Robots and Jobs in US – Two-thirds of Americans expect that robots and computers will do much of the work currently done by humans within 50 years
A majority of Americans predict that within 50 years, robots and computers will do much of the work currently done by humans – but few workers expect their own jobs or professions to experience substantial impacts Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Future of Workforce Automation: Americans’ Predicitions | Pew Research … Continue reading
Up to 15million jobs in Britain could be replaced by robots over the next twenty years – although hairdressers, carers and nannies will be safe. The apocalyptic prediction comes not from the fertile imagination of a science fiction author, but from a senior official at the Bank of England. In an extraordinary speech to trade … Continue reading
The topic of job displacement has, throughout US history, ignited frustration over technological advances and their tendency to make traditional jobs obsolete; artisans protested textile mills in the early 19th century, for example… A conversation Reid Hoffman: If you look at most of the automation, it comes down to man–machine combinations. And all productivity means … Continue reading
The Fourth Industrial Revolution – This transformation is going to change the way we produce goods, provide services, and collaborate with our colleagues
The final panel, moderated by Tilak Agerwala, formerly of IBM, focused on the human-technology frontier. It opened with a presentation by Fay Cook of the National Science Foundation (NSF), who spoke about work at the human-technology frontier. “We are on the cusp of major transformations in work and the workplace driven by new and emerging … Continue reading