Recession in US – Most NABE economists expect it by the end of 2021

“Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the shift in monetary policy, and most expect the next economic recession will occur later than anticipated when the February policy survey was conducted,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, CBE, chief economist, KPMG. “Of the 98% of respondents who believe a recession will come after 2019, the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021.
“Respondent attitudes towards current scal policy have shifted signi cantly as well,” continued Hunter. “The percentage of panelists who nd current scal policy ‘too stimulative’ has declined from 71% in August 2018 to 51% in the current survey. Just over one-third consider scal policy ‘about right,’ and 8% nd it ‘too restrictive.’”

“A majority of respondents believes U.S. monetary policy is ‘about right,’ but the percentage holding this view has fallen from 75% in the previous two surveys to 62%,” added Survey Chair Megan Greene, senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center of Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School. “The survey was conducted before the Federal Reserve’s rate cut on July 31; the majority of survey responses was received prior to that date.

A plurality of panelists anticipates the upper end of the federal funds target rate will be 2% in 2019 and 2020, re ecting one more cut in 2019. Survey respondents are nearly unanimous in their support of the Federal Reserve continuing to have congressional oversight and policy independence.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Economic Policy Survey – Most NABE Economists Expect Recession by the End of 2021; Express Overwhelming Support for Federal Reserve Independence