Job Market Monitor
Inflation
Inflation in Canada (June 2022) – 8.1% year over year, the largest yearly change since January 1983
The rate of consumer inflation continued to rise, reaching 8.1% year over year in June, following a 7.7% gain in May. The increase was the largest yearly change since January 1983. The acceleration in June was mainly due to higher prices for gasoline, however, price increases remained broad-based with seven of eight major components rising … Continue reading
Inflation in UK – Real wages fall at the fastest rate on record
Today’s labour market data tell us a bit more about how the labour market is responding to high inflation and the cost of living shock. We see some things we would expect, some things which may be surprising, and much that remains unresolved. The most eye-popping statistic in today’s labour market data is also the … Continue reading
Inflation in US (May 2022) – Consumer Price Index increased 9.1 percent over the last 12 months
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.3 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.0 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 9.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for gasoline, shelter, … Continue reading
Inflation and Bank of Canada – No “soft landing” history tells us
History tells us that the Bank of Canada has a 0% success rate in fighting inflation by quickly raising interest rates. If a pilot told me that they’d only ever attempted a particular landing three times in the past 60 years with a 0% success rate, that’s not a plane I’d want to be on. … Continue reading
L’Inflation au Canada (mai 2022) – 7,7 % d’une année à l’autre, la plus forte hausse annuelle observée depuis janvier 1983
Les Canadiens ont continué à ressentir les répercussions de la hausse des prix en mai, l’inflation ayant augmenté de 7,7 % d’une année à l’autre. Il s’agit de la plus forte hausse annuelle observée depuis janvier 1983 et d’une augmentation par rapport à la hausse de 6,8 % enregistrée en avril. Sans l’essence, l’IPC a … Continue reading
Inflation in US – Consumer Price Index increased 8.6 percent over the last 12 months, the highest increase since December 1981
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.6 percent before seasonal adjustment. The increase was broad-based, with the … Continue reading
Inflation and the Phillips Curve in US – Why the flatness ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999–2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer prices. … Continue reading
Inflation au Canada (Février 2022) – Les prix à la consommation ont augmenté de 5,7 % d’une année à l’autre, en hausse par rapport à 5,1 % en janvier
En février, les prix à la consommation au Canada ont augmenté de 5,7 % d’une année à l’autre, en hausse par rapport à la croissance de 5,1 % enregistrée en janvier. Il s’agit de la plus forte hausse depuis août 1991 (+6,0 %). Février a marqué le deuxième mois consécutif pendant lequel la hausse de … Continue reading
Inflation in US to 40-Year High(February 2022) – Consumer Price Index up 7.9 percent over the last 12 months
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FEBRUARY 2022 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. Chosen … Continue reading
Inflation in Europe (August 2020) – Annual inflation down to -0.2% in the euro area
In August 2020, a month in which COVID-19 containment measures continued to be lifted, the euro area annual inflation rate was -0.2%, down from 0.4% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 1.0%. European Union annual inflation was 0.4% in August 2020, down from 0.9% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 1.4%. … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US and Europe – The large drop in US core inflation is fully accounted for by sharply higher unemployment but it still a genuine puzzle in the Euro zone
• The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, … • something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.” • Rising unemployment and weak demand are now pushing inflation down, … • though low inflation does not mean that something is automatically “missing.” • We update our Phillips curve … Continue reading
The Phillips Curve – Yes, there is a trade-off
The Phillips curve is unstable and, therefore, an imperfect guide for policy. But unstable does not mean nonexistent, and imperfect does not mean useless. As long as the tools of monetary policy influence both inflation and unemployment, monetary policymakers must be cognizant of the trade-off. Mr. Powell was smart to acknowledge during his congressional hearing … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – What about the Phillips Curve ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999– 2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – The flattening of the Phillips curve
I’m thinking about the rest of us, starting at the top—with the Fed—who are struggling to figure out the nature of the tradeoff as the Fed begins to contemplate unwinding. Given Chair Yellen’s (very appropriate) focus on job-market slack and thus her up-weighting of the full employment side of the mandate, there’s clearly some anxiety … Continue reading
Unemployment and Wages in the US – Long-term unemployed should not be strongly discounted from measures of slack research finds
Some have argued that the unemployment rate may overestimate labor market slack, because the long-term unemployed (LTU) are largely structurally unemployed and exert significantly less wage and price pressure. If so, then using the aggregate unemployment rate to forecast wage or price inflation may be misleading. However, this Note, along with the companion note showing … Continue reading
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