Job Market Monitor
Academic Literature
Job Search in US – It has changed in the aftermath of the Great Recession
The proportion of unemployed individuals who spent some time on an average day searching for a job increased from 20 percent to 24 percent after the recession. However, and perhaps surprisingly, among those unemployed who did search, the average time spent on job search looked very similar in the five years on either side of … Continue reading
US Workforce Investment Act (WIA) – Positive earnings and employment effects for the adult funding stream and mostly negative estimates for the dislocated worker stream research finds
Our examination of the impacts of receiving WIA training rather than solely core and/or intensive services in two anonymous states has yielded a wealth of important findings both substantive and methodological. We find differences in probabilities of training receipt as a function of race, age and education. Substantial unconditional differences by race largely, but not … Continue reading
Participation in US – Ongoing structural influences with some crowding out of job opportunities for young workers research finds
The evidence we present in this paper suggests that much of the steep decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 owes to ongoing structural influences that are pushing down the participation rate rather than a pronounced cyclical weakness related to potential jobseekers’ discouragement about the weak state of the labor market – in … Continue reading
The Job Gap in US – 5.6 million jobs as of August 2014 finds The Hamilton Project
Each month, The Hamilton Project calculates America’s “jobs gap,” or the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while absorbing the people who newly enter the labor force each month. As of the end of August 2014, our nation faces a jobs gap of … Continue reading
Beveridge Curve “Shift” in US – There is no shift to begin with says Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Observers have followed the Beveridge curve during the recession and the recovery to glean some insight into potential structural changes in the labor market. Whether or not a shift implies an actual structural change—specifically, a decline in the matching efficiency of the labor market—is still debatable. However, one thing is clear: there is no shift … Continue reading
Employment Rate in Canada and the United States since the Last Recession – Both flat
The employment rate corresponds to the percentage of the working-age population that is employed. It allows the interpretation of employment growth in relation to population growth. Employment growth that is greater than population growth can be indicative of an improvement in the state of the labour market. The employment rate increases (decreases) when employment growth … Continue reading
Canada – Skills shortages have developed in certain fields and regions in recent years OECD finds
Skills shortages have developed in certain fields and regions in recent years. Earnings premiums for people in some professions, notably health, engineering and skilled trades have increased. And vacancy rates have risen for skilled trades, with the increase being particularly large in Alberta and Saskatchewan. While reforms have been implemented to strengthen adjustment so as … Continue reading
Polarization – The four middle skill occupations: 60 percent of employment in 1979, 46 percent in 2012
Cumulatively, these two trends of rapid employment growth in both high and low-‐‑education jobs have substantially reduced the share of employment accounted for by ‘middle skill’ jobs. In 1979, the four middle skill occupations (sales, office and administrative workers, production workers, and operatives) accounted for 60 percent of employment. In 2007, this number was 49 … Continue reading
Participation in the US – The decline
Ageing and the workforce The largest single factor behind the decline is the ageing of the population. In order to understand how an ageing population affects overall labour force participation, it is helpful to look at the participation rates of different age groups. Figures 2 and 3 show the participation rate profiles for men and … Continue reading
Workplace Stress in US
Despite relative affluence, workplace stress is a prominent feature of the US labour market. To the extent that job stress causes poor health outcomes – either directly through increased blood pressure, fatigue, muscle pain, etc. or indirectly through increased rates of cigarette smoking – policy to lessen job stress may be appropriate. Focusing predominantly on … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – The flattening of the Phillips curve
I’m thinking about the rest of us, starting at the top—with the Fed—who are struggling to figure out the nature of the tradeoff as the Fed begins to contemplate unwinding. Given Chair Yellen’s (very appropriate) focus on job-market slack and thus her up-weighting of the full employment side of the mandate, there’s clearly some anxiety … Continue reading
US – The short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, so what ?
Because the short-term unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession average, one important implication—if the hypothesis that the long-term unemployed are largely on the margins of the labor market is correct—is that further declines in short-term unemployment would be expected to be associated with rising inflation and stronger real wage growth. So has this trend … Continue reading
China – Unemployment and labour shortage co-exist
Why do labour shortage and high unemployment co-exist in China? I analysed this in my book. More specifically, I explored the matching efficiency in the labour market by estimating the matching function between job offers and job seekers in urban labour markets in China based on search and matching theory. Figure 3 shows the values … Continue reading
Involuntary Part-time Employment in US
As the economy continues its recovery from the Great Recession, we expect the number of those working part time for economic reasons to fall. However, it is probable that the ratio of PTER to unemployment will continue to increase as it has historically done. That is because, during the recoveries, the number of unemployed people … Continue reading
Globalisation – Average income increased, but the gains were concentrated among employees of large exporting firms study finds
How does increased openness to international trade affect workers’ wages and job security? This question is central to the public debate concerning the effects of globalisation, but convincing quantitative answers have been difficult to come by. Trade liberalisations are often accompanied by labour market reforms, making it difficult to isolate their effects. This column discusses … Continue reading
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