Economic Outlook in US (2022-2032) – CBO’s projections

After 2022, CBO projects, the growth of real gross domestic product will slow because of several factors, including tightening monetary policy, slowing demand for labor, and waning fiscal support.

In CBO’s projections, real potential gross domestic product grows faster over the next five years than it has since the 2007–2009 recession because potential labor force productivity is expected to grow more quickly. However, growth in the potential labor force is slower than in previous periods, largely because of the aging of the population. The unemployment rate falls over the next year because of the ongoing expansion of the economy.

The labor force participation rate is expected to rise through early 2023. The participation rate then begins to decline as the negative effects of the aging population begin to offset the positive effects of the economic recovery.


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