Annual output is projected to shrink by 9.4% in 2020 in the event of a second virus outbreak and related shutdown, and by 8% if recovery is uninterrupted. The rebound will not be dynamic enough for output to attain pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2021 under either scenario. Similarly, the rate of unemployment will still be elevated. Fiscal balances will deteriorate sharply from additional spending commitments and tax-revenue losses and then recover somewhat thanks to declining outlays in support payments and recovering incomes. Weak demand will push down consumer price inflation.
The central bank, along with federal, provincial and territorial governments, have responded quickly to the COVID-19 crisis, and a substantial range of monetary, fiscal and structural support is in place. Contingency plans for future outbreaks of COVID-19 are now needed. Policy also needs to ensure that measures already taken are effective, in particular the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) given the importance accorded to them. Gaps in support need to be dealt with as they appear, especially among vulnerable groups, including aboriginal communities. The oil sector shock should be used as an opportunity to accelerate green transition.
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @ OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1 : Preliminary version | OECD iLibrary
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