Derek Holt, VP at Scotiank Economics, urged clients on Friday to approach Statistics Canada’s latest reading on the country’s labour market with caution, calling some details in the report “very fishy.”
According to the agency, the Canadian economy unexpectedly lost 11,000 jobs in August from July, and the number of private-sector employees fell sharply.
The fall of 111,800 in the number of private-sector employees amounted to 1.0%, equaling the record month-on-month drop in April 1982. Overall, 97,800 employees lost their jobs, while the number of self-employed rose by 86,900.
“Guess what? We again advise clients to be very careful with the Canadian jobs numbers,” said Holt in a note that comes just two weeks or so after Statistics Canada issued an unprecedented and massive revision of its July jobs report.
“Apparently private payroll employees were just crushed last month via a drop of 97,800 and this was almost fully offset by a coincidental surge of 86,900 in the number of self-employed,” Holt continued. “That’s statistically possible I suppose but it looks very fishy to me.”
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Top economists say there’s something ‘very fishy’ about Statistics Canada’s August jobs report | Financial Post.
Canada Job Report for August 2014 – Employment increased by 81,000, mostly in part-time work the last 12 months
But economy shed 11,000 jobs last month… And take care about the way StatCan writes it! From the official press release Employment was little changed in August and the unemployment rate remained at 7.0%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment increased by 81,000 (+0.5%), mostly in part-time work. Over the same period, the total number of hours worked was virtually unchanged… …Continue reading
But this is far from the only thing troubling regular StatsCan users. I made the following chart to illustrate one of the great frustrations that journalists, economists and academics have with StatsCan. One minute, the agency, tasked with measuring the tick tock of the economy and society, tracks seemingly vital data (such as detailed breakdowns of … Continue reading
An error has been detected in the processing of the August 8 Labour Force Survey release. This error impacts only the July 2014 estimates. The source of the error has been identified and corrected estimates will be released on Friday, August 15, 2014. Statistics Canada takes this matter very seriously and is immediately launching a review of the data verification processes … Continue reading
Statistics Canada’s decision to pull its latest jobs report forced officials to put employment insurance claims on hold and triggered a flood of speculation from economists as to what Friday’s updated numbers will reveal. Approvals for EI claims are partly based on regional unemployment rates, but officials say staff will be able to manage the … Continue reading
Canada – Statcan job numbers: the measurements don’t even address the most interesting information says Don Drummond
Statistics Canada’s survey presents the number of jobs created or lost for the given month, as well as the unemployment rate. Don Drummond, an economist who wrote a report for the government five years ago on how to improve the country’s labour-market data, said the concerns over the Labour Force Survey lie in the limitations … Continue reading