India / Will the world’s most populous country by 2028 reap a ‘demographic dividend’ ?

Given the one-child policy’s lock on China’s fertility, nobody expected it to remain the world’s most populous country forever. India had been projected to grab this title by 2045 or even 2035. But a new UN report notes that we are hurtling towards this ‘takeover’ faster than anticipated and will become the world’s most populous country by 2028! In a world without agricultural revolutions, industrial expansion and technological innovations, this would have been alarming news. Today, we greet it with sanguinity.

China’s wealth-generating factories have begun reporting labour shortages. As these shortages rise, so will wages. And then India with its expanding labour force should reap a huge demographic dividend. Unfortunately, all the data on job growth is disappointing. In a country that already has more than 1.24 billion people and about half a billion workers, only about five million are employed in manufacturing facilities that employ more than 10 people. More than half the manufacturing workers are in facilities without electricity. That’s pitiful. Between 1981 and 2001, China moved 680 million people out of poverty and it did this with a single-minded focus on creating industrial jobs. Our government is focussed on other matters.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor

via Need employment plan for the world’s most populous nation, circa 2028 – The Times of India.