Academic Literature

US / Lowering Expectations about Employment Gains for the coming years

“The buoyant monthly employment gains that accompanied prior recoveries are not likely to be repeated. Indeed, even if GDP growth were to surprise on the high side (3.1 percent for 2013 as illustrated in the cyclical LFPR scenario), employment growth generated by our model would still be just 147,000 per month in the current year, even though the economy would be on a path to a 6.5 percent unemployment rate by the third quarter of 2014” write Mark E. Schweitzer and Murat Tasci.

“Ultimately, the degree of change in employment growth or the unemployment rate required to represent a “substantial” amount of progress in the labor market outlook is a subjective judgment. However, the pattern of employment growth that the economy will generate over a multiyear span depends importantly on output growth, the trend paths of labor market dynamism, and labor force participation. In this Commentary we used a simple model of labor markets to demonstrate why it is reasonable to think that the monthly pace of employment gains is likely to be smaller than the U.S. has seen in past recoveries.”

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor

Big Picture

via What Constitutes Substantial Employment Gains in Today’s Labor Market? | The Big Picture.

Related Posts

US / Employment growth above about 80,000 jobs per month would put downward pressure on the unemployment rate finds research

POSTED BY  ⋅ JUNE 7, 2013 ⋅ LEAVE A COMMENT

Daniel Aaronson and Scott Brave « estimate that, currently, employment growth above about 80,000 jobs per month would put downward pressure on the unemployment rate » in Estimating the trend in employment growth on Chicago Fed Letter. (Adapted Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor to follow) Likewise, anything short of this benchmark would push the unemployment rate up. … Continue reading »

US / When will the Jobs Gap be filled ?

POSTED BY  ⋅ MAY 14, 2013 ⋅ LEAVE A COMMENT

Below is an update of the graph showing job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, with a projection assuming the current rate of payroll growth will continue. This suggests that employment will exceed the pre-recession peak around July 2014 (Private employment will reach a new high around March of 2014). … Continue reading »

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Jobs – Offres d’emploi – US & Canada (Eng. & Fr.)

The Most Popular Job Search Tools

Even More Objectives Statements to customize

Cover Letters – Tools, Tips and Free Cover Letter Templates for Microsoft Office

Follow Job Market Monitor on WordPress.com

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Follow Job Market Monitor via Twitter

Categories

Archives

%d bloggers like this: