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At the July 163 000 jobs rythm, it would take up to 2025 to recover

What the NYT Says

With 163,000 new jobs created, July’s employment growth topped both analysts’ expectations and the meager job gains in May and June. While that growth was not enough to reduce the jobless rate – now 8.3 percent – it was enough to boost the stock market. For investors, the job tally was just high enough to be a pleasant surprise and low enough to give them hope that the Federal Reserve would soon intervene to juice the economy.

The market’s reaction aside, the report actually shows how bad things are and highlights what needs to be done to improve conditions.

July’s job-growth figure brings the monthly average tally for 2012 to 151,000, compared with a monthly average in 2011 of 153,000. At that tepid pace, it would take roughly 10 more years to regain the jobs that were lost – or never created – as a result of the Great Recession.

The month’s jobless rate brings the average for 2012 to 8.2 percent, compared with an average in 2011 of 9 percent, though most of the “improvement” is because of a shrinking labor force, not more hiring. The average hourly wage in 2012, adjusted for inflation through June, has been $23.39; the average in 2011 was $23.44.

The picture that emerges is of a job market that is stuck. Broader measures reinforce that conclusion: In the first half of this year, economic growth averaged 1.7 percent; in 2011, it was 1.8 percent. For all the up and down of monthly and quarterly economic data, the economy lacks forward momentum…. via NYT: The Job Market Is Stuck in Pla.

Indeed, taking population growth into account, the picture is clearer; the job market is flat. 

At this rythm, the US job market would recover the job lost in number, not as % of population, by 2025! This was estimated using the Hamilton Project Simulator.

via At the 163 000 jobs rythm, it would take up to 2025 to recover « Job Market Monitor.

US – July – Thx to the shrinking labor force: Employment rose by 163 000, not enough for the unemployment rate to fall (up @ 8.3%)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing. via Employment Situation Summary. -*- The drop in participation is larger for men than … Continue reading »

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