The most recent U.S. recession and recovery have been accompanied by a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. The largest declines have occurred in states with the largest job losses. This suggests that some of the recent drop in the national labor force participation rate could be cyclical. Past recoveries show evidence of … Continue reading
Below is an update of the graph showing job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, with a projection assuming the current rate of payroll growth will continue. This suggests that employment will exceed the pre-recession peak around July 2014 (Private employment will reach a new high around March of 2014). … Continue reading
When an economy is humming, there are lots of job openings and low unemployment. When the economy is malfunctioning, there are few openings and unemployment is high. The regular relationship between job openings and unemployment is called the Beveridge Curve. If the curve shifts outward it means that a given level of job openings is associated … Continue reading
The Fed/IMF/GS economists argue that the unemployment rate is now substantially understating the “true” amount of under-employment in the economy because the labour force participation rate has fallen as a direct consequence of the depth and longevity of the recession. They show that, while this effect does not apply during a normal recession, workers have … Continue reading
Mothers with infant children1 in the U.S. today are more educated than they ever have been. In 2011, more than six-in-ten (66%) had at least some college education, while 34% had a high school diploma or less and just 14% lacked a high school diploma, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. … Continue reading
Growth in Germany and the United States have been virtually identical since the beginning of the downturn. While Germany has a large balance of trade surplus, in contrast to the deficit in the United States, its consumption growth has been weaker. Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor via Low Unemployment in Germany: The Story Is … Continue reading
U.S. builders and the subcontractors they depend on are struggling to hire fast enough to meet rising demand for new homes. Builders would be starting work on more homes — and contributing more to the economy — if they could fill more job openings. In the meantime, workers in the right locations with the right … Continue reading
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years last week, signaling labor market resilience in the face of fiscal austerity. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, the lowest level since January 2008, the Labor Department said on … Continue reading
“The U.S. government invests in big banks by giving them a great deal on their interest rates,” freshman Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in an interview with Salon on Wednesday afternoon (the transcript of which is below). “We should make at least the same investment in our students.” Warren was discussing the first bill she has introduced … Continue reading
The Republican-led House is poised to approve a bill that would give private sector workers the option of choosing paid time off instead of cash wages for working overtime. The measure would allow employees who work more than 40 hours a week to save up their earned time off for use weeks or months later. … Continue reading
Americans put reforming immigration and reducing gun violence — the focus of much of the attention on Capitol Hill in recent weeks — at the bottom of a list of 12 priorities for Congress and the president to address. Americans instead say leaders in Washington should give highest priority to jobs and the economy, followed … Continue reading
NCEE has released What Does It Really Mean to Be College and Work Ready?, a study of the English Literacy and Mathematics required for success in the first year of community college. During a day-long meeting with key education and policy leaders, NCEE will discuss the results of the study and its implications for community … Continue reading
We’re all talking about the “jobs of the future” and “winning the future” and transitioning to a “knowledge economy.” Since predictions are hard, especially about the future, it’s a good idea to look at some data. And it looks like we have some of it: the BLS has a handy chart of the fastest-growing jobs … Continue reading
Federally funded benefits paid to the long-term unemployed were lowered by 10.7 percent starting March 31 as part of reductions to planned government spending called sequestration. Benefit cuts will affect about 1.8 million workers, based on Labor Department data, and add to the drag on consumer spending from a payroll tax increase that took effect … Continue reading
The Federal Reserve’s is expected to extend its easing measures until the job market improves “substantially”, the stated goal is a decline of the unemployment rate to 6.5%. One can use the unemployment rate model to provide an estimate of the future unemployment rate (UER). This model suggests that the unemployment rate will decline to … Continue reading