Job Market Monitor
United States
National Job Guarantee in US – Considerable uncertainty associated with its impacts
Despite a relatively strong U.S. economy in late 2018, many workers continue to experience stagnant wages and underemployment. In response, policy interventions like subsidized wages, training and search assistance, expanded public employment, and federal guarantees of employment have all been proposed, but relatively little is known about how a federal job guarantee would function. We … Continue reading
The Geography of the Future of Work in US – A mosaic of local economies on diverging trajectories
A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. Automation is not happening in a vacuum, and the health of local economies today will affect their … Continue reading
Industry-Driven Apprenticeship in US – A true alternative with a two-track system for skills standards
Changing technology, growing skills mismatches and weak wage growth are drawing attention to the need for more sophisticated, more relevant career and technical skills, especially for workers who lack a four-year college degree. Among the most effective ways to raise skill levels and prepare workers for rewarding careers is with apprenticeships that combine classroom learning … Continue reading
Job Report in US revised – Employers added a half-million fewer jobs in 2018 and early 2019 than previously reported
Employers added a half-million fewer jobs in 2018 and early 2019 than previously reported, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The revisions, which are preliminary, are part of an annual process in which survey-based estimates are brought into alignment with more definitive data from state unemployment insurance records. Wednesday’s revision covers the period through March; final … Continue reading
Immigration in US – For a labor-market-driven immigration system
The U.S. labor market will be buffeted by at least three major sets of changes over the next few decades. The country will see major shifts in the following characteristics of the market: 1. Demographics. The native-born population and workforce will age and shrink, and the presence of racial and ethnic minorities in the workforce … Continue reading
Higher Education in US – Only half of American adults think colleges and universities are having a positive effect
Americans see value in higher education – whether they graduated from college or not. Most say a college degree is important, if not essential, in helping a young person succeed in the world, and college graduates themselves say their degree helped them grow and develop the skills they needed for the workplace. While fewer than half … Continue reading
US – The noninflationary unemployment rate threshold have declined toward 4% in recent years
Unemployment is running near its 50-year low, but inflation has not picked up as expected. This suggests that the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation has fallen. Combining a conventional Phillips curve tradeoff between unemployment and inflation with a noninflationary unemployment rate that can change over time shows that estimates of this unemployment threshold have … Continue reading
Recession in US – Most NABE economists expect it by the end of 2021
“Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the shift in monetary policy, and most expect the next economic recession will occur later than anticipated when the February policy survey was conducted,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, CBE, chief economist, KPMG. “Of the 98% of respondents who believe a recession will come after … Continue reading
Upgrading Skills in US – A more comprehensive approach is required
To upgrade the skills of Americans at greatest risk from automation, a more comprehensive approach is required — one that’s backed by government. To start, states and the federal government should boost tax credits to encourage small and medium-sized businesses to invest more in retraining low-skilled workers. States should bolster workforce development boards that help … Continue reading
US – Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
Th[is] graph is for private employment only. Mr. Trump is in Orange (30 months). The employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush’s (red) first term was sluggish, and private employment was down 821,000 jobs at the end of his first term. At the end of Mr. Bush’s second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 382,000 private … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – What about the Phillips Curve ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999– 2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer … Continue reading
Job Report in US, July 2019 – Employment rose by 164,000 and unemployment unchanged at 3.7
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities. Household Survey Data The unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in July, and … Continue reading
Immigration in US – 87 percent of overall population growth by 2049 CBO says
With birth rates projected to remain low, net immigration flows become an increasingly important part of overall U.S. population growth; in 2019, projected net in flows account for approximately 45 percent of overall population growth, but by 2049 that share is nearly 87 percent. CBO projects three broad categories of immigration: legal permanent residents (LPRs), … Continue reading
Career and Technical Education and Local Labor Markets in US – How aligned ?
The recent reauthorization of the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act—the principal federal education program supporting career and technical education (CTE)—expressly aims to “align workforce skills with labor market needs.” How Aligned is Career and Technical Education to Local Labor Markets?, co-authored by Pepperdine University associate professor Cameron Sublett and Fordham Institute senior research … Continue reading
Pre-Apprenticeship in US – To prepare individuals to enter and succeed
Pre-apprenticeship programs are designed to prepare individuals to enter and succeed in a Registered Apprenticeship or other high-quality apprenticeship program, and ultimately a career. They can be delivered by a range of entities including community-based organizations, high schools, labor organizations, workforce agencies, or community colleges. For educational institutions, the programs can and should integrate directly … Continue reading
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