Job Market Monitor
Unemployment
COVID and Kurzarbeit in Germany – How workers are paid when their work dries up
The state-funded German safety net known as Kurzarbeit, which keeps salaries flowing to workers even when their work has dried up, is getting renewed attention as governments around the world grapple with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. The European Commission is using the German program as a model for a regional effort to … Continue reading
COVID in Spain – March worst month on record for the labour market
Jobless claims in Spain surged by 302,000 people in March, the highest monthly increase on record and far higher than the previous record from January 2009 when unemployment claims rose by 200,000 as Spain went into an economic crisis. Spain’s Minister of Labour and Social Economy, Yolanda Diaz, said that nearly 834,000 jobs had been … Continue reading
Jobs after COVID in US – Retooled for the Twenty-First Century?
In my 2016 book, Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy, I told the story of how economic globalization caught the United States off-guard. For most of our history, we were a reasonably self-sufficient economy, with an expanding domestic market that was more than large enough to exploit economies of … Continue reading
COVID and Jobs in Europe vs US – The Partial Unemployment (wage subsidy)
The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically changed economic life across Europe and the United States. By confining people to their homes, leading them to spend far less money than they otherwise would, the West has seen a collapse in consumption, threatening the survival of a sweeping number and range of firms, from restaurants to airlines to … Continue reading
COVID and Unemployment – Official jobless figures will miss the economic pain of the pandemic
An estimated 46 million Americans have already been laid off or seen a reduction in hours as a result of COVID-19, according to Gallup survey data collected from March 27 to March 31, 2020. This amounts to around 28% of workers. But these massive losses are unlikely to register in the official data from our … Continue reading
Job Report in US, March 2020 – Employment fell by 701,000 even if the reference periods predated many COVID impacts
Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking … Continue reading
COVID in Spain – Some 900,000 workers have lost their job and at least another 620,000 have seen their contracts suspended
Spain has shed jobs at a record pace since it went into lockdown to fight the coronavirus, social security data showed on Thursday, laying bare the scale of the epidemic’s impact in the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy. Some 900,000 workers have lost their job since mid-March, with those on short-term contracts in tourism or construction … Continue reading
COVID and Unemployed Canadians – A third of unemployed Canadians (862,000) receive nothing
New federal policies are being created and adapted daily to try and head off the worst-case economic impacts of COVID-19. Many of those modifications are in reaction to advocates pointing out pitfalls in the proposed design of emergency measures. As these programs unfold, I’ve been tracking how well they cover laid off workers who are … Continue reading
COVID in US – The St. Louis Fed’s back-of-the-Envelope Estimates : given the assumption of a constant labor force, 32.1%
As state and local governments implement social-distancing measures to suppress and contain the spread of COVID-19, many businesses are faced with a large decrease in sales and revenue. This slowdown of economic activity could inevitably lead to solvency and liquidity problems that result in workers being laid off. This negative shock does not equally affect … Continue reading
COVID-19 in Canada – The impact on the labour market
The Bottom Line… • Global economy will feel the effects of COVID-19—a recession is likely in many countries • Canada and the United States went into February 2020 on a solid footing but things have deteriorated precipitously • Economic impact will depend entirely on our success (in Canada and the United States) at containing the … Continue reading
COVID-19 in US Viewed from the FED – Unemployment may soar to 30%
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product. Bullard called for a powerful fiscal response to replace the $2.5 trillion in lost income that quarter to … Continue reading
COVID-19 in US – Over 37 million U.S. jobs may be vulnerable to potential layoffs in the short term
Almost 56% of US production and non-supervisory jobs (about 59.5 million jobs) offer weekly incomes below the $802 weighted average weekly income for all such jobs. Together, those low-quality jobs offer a weighted average of $539 in weekly income, or just over $28,000 per year. There is a subset of these workers, in jobs often … Continue reading
COVID-19 in Canada – Programs for those who lose their jobs are insufficient
Editorial – In Canada and Québec, governments have announced a series of insufficient programs geared toward employment insurance and its meagre 55% of insurable salary. Here’s what’s happening elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom where the government will pay up to 80% of the salary of those who lose their jobs. @ https://jobmarketmonitor.com/2020/03/22/covid-19-and-jobs-in-uk-government-to-pay-80-of-wages-for-those-not-working/ The House … Continue reading
COVID-19 and Jobs in UK – Government to pay 80% of wages for those not working
The government is to pay the wages of millions of workers across Britain to keep them in jobs as the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak escalates. In an unprecedented step for the British government, the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said the state would pay grants covering up to 80% of the salary of workers if … Continue reading
Job Report in US, February 2020 – Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by a 273,000, well above consensus expectations
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities. Household Survey Data Both … Continue reading
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