Job Market Monitor
Labor Force Participation
Participation in US – Labor market exits and entrances are elevated
Although people out of the labor force continue to enter each month at elevated rates, two findings suggest particular risk for the labor market outlook going forward: (1) the exit rate out of the labor market is generally more elevated among those without a four-year postsecondary degree and (2) people who are unemployed continue to … Continue reading
Labor Force Participation in US – Why Isn’t it recovering?
While the unemployment rate continues to fall quickly, labor force participation has made no progress since August 2020. In this US Daily, we examine where labor force participation remains weak and potential explanations for its underperformance. Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over … Continue reading
COVID and Labor Force Indicators in US – Job loss has been significantly large, those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones and participation in the labor force has declined by 7 pp
The arrival of the covid-19 virus and the policy responses have led to unprecedented numbers of initial claims for unemployment since early 2020: over 16.5 million by April 4 th, 2020, with new claims arriving at a rate of 6-7 million per week. But concerns about state governments’ inability to process so many claims in such … Continue reading
The New Labor Market in US – Do the widely used measures undercount ?
The CPS and ATUS questions used to classify labor force status are similar, and both rely on the words “work” and “job.” Some researchers feel that these questions fail to resonate with gig workers and those in informal employment arrangements. They argue that, as a result, two widely used measures could be considerably undercounted—the total … Continue reading
Participation in US – Despite no sustained increase in the observed labor force participation rate in recent years, there has been a significant cyclical increase
After increasing for nearly four decades, the rate of labor force participation for individuals at least 16 years old began to fall in the first decade of the 2000s, from a peak of 67.1 percent in 2000 to 66.0 percent at the start of the 2007–2009 recession. Between the start of the recession and 2014, … Continue reading
Labor Force Participation in US – Has fallen more in areas where relatively more opioid pain medication is prescribed
The labor force participation rate in the U.S. has declined since 2007 primarily because of population aging and ongoing trends that preceded the Great Recession. The participation rate has evolved differently, and for different reasons, across demographic groups. A rise in school enrollment has largely offset declining participation for young workers since the 1990s. The … Continue reading
US – What reasons are given for nonparticipation in the labor force?
While a comprehensive explanation of labor force nonparticipation is outside the scope of this paper, we can gain some insight from self-reported reasons for being out of the labor force.2 In figure 3, we describe the reasons that prime-age men and women give for their nonparticipation. (The percentage in each category is out of the … Continue reading
US – Who is out of the labor force?
In this analysis, we explore the following questions about the approximately 24 million men and women of prime working age who were not in the labor force in 2016. Key findings are: Women with a high school education or less are overwhelmingly the largest group of Americans out of the labor force. After excluding caregivers … Continue reading
Participation in US – 11 percentage point gap in participation rates between men with a college degree and those with a high school degree or less
For decades, the portion of prime-age men (ages 25 to 54) in the labor force has been in decline. More recently, the labor force participation rate of prime-age women has stagnated and also declined. This paper addresses the consequences of, and reasons for, these declines, especially among men. A subsequent effort will address appropriate policy … Continue reading
US – Labor force participation is too low, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says
Labor force participation is too low. Labor force participation in the United States has gone from 66% to 63% between 2008 and today. Some of the reasons for this decline are understandable and aren’t too worrisome – for example, an aging population. But if you examine the data more closely and focus just on labor … Continue reading
US – A continuous decline in the overall participation rates until 2060 BLS says
In the Census Bureau’s latest projections, the growth rate (percentage change) of the resident population is projected to decrease in the long term. In 2022, the share of natural increase and immigration in projections of the resident population will be equal and at 50 percent. The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to grow from … Continue reading
Labor Force Participation in US – The CBO’s projections: a drop of 3.7 percentage points over 30 years
What Are CBO’s Current Projections of Labor Force Participation? CBO projects that the rate of labor force participation (that is, the number of people who are either working or seeking work as a share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population age 16 or older) will decline from 62.8 percent in 2017 to 61.0 percent in 2027 and … Continue reading
Labor Force Participation in US – About half of the decline is attributable to the weakness of the economy rather than changes in demographics
Between 2007 and 2015, the LFPR dropped 3.4 percentage points, equivalent to over 8 million people leaving the labor force. About half of this decline is attributable to the weakness of the economy rather than changes in demographics. Factoring in the rise in unemployment over this period, this translates into over 5 million fewer people … Continue reading
US – In 2014, 87.4 million people 16 years and older neither worked nor looked for work
In 2014, 87.4 million people 16 years and older neither worked nor looked for work at any time during the year. Of this group, 38.5 million people reported retirement as the main reason for not working. About 16.3 million people were ill or had a disability, and 16.0 million were attending school. Another 13.5 million … Continue reading
Long-Term Impact of Mass Layoffs – As layoffs increase by 1%, total labour force shrinks by 0.15 percentage points
When 1% of a county’s labour force is laid off, the county’s total labour force shrinks by 0.15 percentage points within three years. Between 2001 and 2011, internal migration, take-up of disability insurance, and early retirement account for three-quarters of the decline in the labour force following a significant economic downturn, with internal migration accounting … Continue reading
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