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COVID Economic Shock of Coronavirus – Examining the shape (V, U or L ?)

The concept of a recession is binary and blunt. All it says is that expectations have flipped from positive to negative growth, at least for two consecutive quarters. We think the bigger scenario question revolves around the shape of the shock — what we call “shock geometry” — and its structural legacy. What drives the … Continue reading

COVID in Canada – The projections show a worst-case scenario with 350,000 deaths

  Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @ Full text: Canada releases projections for COVID-19 epidemic that show worst-case scenario with 350,000 deaths | National Post

COVID and Recession – ‘We’re heading into a Great Depression’ Ray Dalio says (Bridgewater Associates with $160 billion in assets)

Ray Dalio believes we are hitting a depression similar to that of the 1930s, which will take years of financial and economic reconfiguration and human ingenuity to recover from, as he discussed in a Wednesday Ted Connects talk. “We’re not going to go back the way it was,” said Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio in … Continue reading

COVID and Labor Shortages in US – Wanted: People who know COBOL for UI program coding

On top of ventilators, face masks and health care workers, you can now add COBOL programmers to the list of what several states urgently need as they battle the coronavirus pandemic. In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy has put out a call for volunteers who know how to code the decades-old computer programming language called … Continue reading

COVID and Trade – Nearly all regions will suffer double-digit declines in trade volumes in 2020 WTO says

The wide range of possibilities for the predicted decline is explained by the unprecedented nature of this health crisis and the uncertainty around its precise economic impact. But WTO economists believe the decline will likely exceed the trade slump brought on by the global financial crisis of 2008‑09 (Chart 1). Estimates of the expected recovery in … Continue reading

Job Report in Canada, March 2020 – With only partial impact of COVID, employment fell by more than one million

Employment fell by more than one million in March (-1,011,000 or -5.3%). The employment rate—or the proportion of people aged 15 and older who were employed—fell 3.3 percentage points to 58.5%, the lowest rate since April 1997. Of those who were employed in March, the number who did not work any hours during the reference week (March 15 to 21) increased by 1.3 million, while the number … Continue reading

L’emploi au Canada et au Québec, mars 2020 – L’effet du COVID mesuré qu’en partie, mais l’emploi a diminué de plus de 1 million en mars

L’emploi a diminué de plus de 1 million en mars (-1 011 000 ou -5,3 %). Le taux d’emploi – ou la proportion de personnes âgées de 15 ans et plus occupant un emploi – a baissé de 3,3 points de pourcentage pour s’établir à 58,5 %. Il s’agit du taux le plus bas depuis … Continue reading

COVID and Workers – The mental health of your essential workers

The topic of social isolation continues to be a part of the daily conversation as employees across Canada deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. For those living alone who have been asked to work from home to support social-distancing policies, it’s understandable that some may be struggling with this isolation period. But it’s important that we … Continue reading

COVID and Summer – Warm weather is unlikely to stop coronavirus, National Academies finds

A panel convened by the National Academies of Sciences reported to the White House on Tuesday that the novel coronavirus is unlikely to wane with the arrival of summer, though there are many uncertainties remaining. These findings are in line with previous studies offering hypotheses regarding how the virus may behave in warmer and more … Continue reading

COVID in – More jobs lost than US did during the Depression

While we wait to get a clearer picture of the health coronavirus curve in India, we already have the first estimate of the job-destruction caused by the nation-wide lockdown. The numbers are staggering, worse than anything the world has ever known. More jobs were lost in India in the last two weeks than anything ever … Continue reading

COVID in China – The worst job market in 20 years

China faces its worst job market in more than two decades, with tens of millions of people temporarily without work or unemployed in the first three months of 2020 and the number of jobs set to shrink by more than 10 million this year, according to UBS Group AG economists. About 70-80 million people in … Continue reading

COVID in Japan – Main points of the US$1 trillion emergency package

Japan is unleashing economic stimulus measures worth about US$1 trillion as it battles the COVID-19 outbreak, which has prompted a state of emergency in several parts of the country, including Tokyo. The package, valued at 108 trillion yen, envisages the government spending 39.5 trillion yen to protect jobs, bolster the medical sector and ease the … Continue reading

COVID and Wages in UK – Large cuts may come if you are younger and work in a small firm

The Covid-19 pandemic is turning into a global recession – probably the biggest drop in economic activity since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The latest forecasts put UK and US GDP both down by about 10% in Q2 2020 (40% on an annualized basis). GDP is an important measure of economic wellbeing, but the … Continue reading

COVID in US – Putting the 240,000 projections in perspective

In 2017, a total of about 2.8 million people died in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The leading cause, as usual, was heart disease, which killed 647,457 people. At a high of 240,000 fatalities (assuming we continue to social distance, and assuming for the moment that the White … Continue reading

COVID and Productivity – Canadians workers boost productivity working at home while European colleagues lag behind

Software-as-a-service monitoring company tracks how much time employees spend using Outlook, Excel, and Salesforce. Productivity is up in Canada, slightly down in the US, and significantly down in Europe, according to a new analysis of work at home activity. From Feb. 24 through March 26, workers in North America slightly increased their overall productivity by … Continue reading

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