Job Market Monitor
Academic Literature
Canada – Aging population could have a positive effect on the labour market outcomes of youth research finds
Post-recession it is common to hear concerns that youth, facing high unemployment rates, are unable to find good job opportunities. Historically, youth have experienced higher unemployment rates than older workers. In the context of an aging workforce dominated by the baby boom generation and delayed retirement, there appears a general concern that older workers are … Continue reading
Mobility in Canada – Infrastructure tradespersons are no more likely to have migrated from another province or region
In 2011, “infrastructure tradespersons” aged 25 to 44 were no more likely to have migrated from another province or region than those who had other types of postsecondary credentials. Infrastructure tradespersons are defined as those who had a certification in trades and whose major field of study was in construction trades, mechanics and repair, precision production, or heavy equipment machinery … Continue reading
US – Hours worked for the three underperforming sectors—manufacturing, construction, and information—remain well below their pre-Great Recession levels
The three charts show hours worked for the largest sectors in the economy, grouped by performance relative to pre-Great Recession levels. These data provide insight into current sources of slack in the labor market. The Great Recession took a severe toll on total hours worked across all of these sectors. Excluding the education and health services … Continue reading
US – The 2009 Recovery Act directly created and saved jobs primarily in government finds St. Louis Fed
Over one-half of the fiscal spending component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ARRA; i.e., the Recovery Act was allocated via grants, loans, and contracts. Businesses, nonprofits, and nonfederal government agencies that received this type of stimulus funding were required to report the number of jobs directly created and saved as a result of … Continue reading
Overeducation in US – 66% of workers remaining overeducated after one year research finds
In their paper The career prospects of overeducated Americans, (Preliminary version) @ unc.edu Brian Clark, Clément Joubert and Arnaud Maurel analyze career dynamics for the substantial share of U.S. workers who are deemed overeducated in the literature. They use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 combined with the pooled 1989-1991 waves of the … Continue reading
Unemployment and Wages in the US – Long-term unemployed should not be strongly discounted from measures of slack research finds
Some have argued that the unemployment rate may overestimate labor market slack, because the long-term unemployed (LTU) are largely structurally unemployed and exert significantly less wage and price pressure. If so, then using the aggregate unemployment rate to forecast wage or price inflation may be misleading. However, this Note, along with the companion note showing … Continue reading
US – Highly educated immigrants raise native wages
mmigrants to the US are drawn from both ends of the education spectrum. This column looks at the effect of highly educated immigrants – in particular, those with degrees in Science, Technology, Engineering, or Mathematics – on total factor productivity growth. The authors find that foreign STEM workers can explain 30% to 60% of US … Continue reading
Keynes argued that slumps can happen because of declining wage
‘New-Keynesian’ models use sticky prices and downward rigidity of nominal wages to get ‘Keynesian’ results: during slumps, low interest rates, money growth and additional expenditure (not necessarily government expenditure) can heal the economy and lower unemployment without inflationary consequences. The name ‘New-Keynesian’ is however a double travesty. Not because prices aren’t sticky (many are) or … Continue reading
US – A study on the effects of military service on earnings and education
Estimating the effect of military service is complicated by the fact that veterans are likely to differ from nonveterans in ways that are correlated with subsequent economic outcomes but are not observable to the researcher. This report builds on earlier work to understand how military service affects earnings, especially how these effects differ by the … Continue reading
US – Workers have slowed their transitions between employers St. Louis Fed finds
Jobs in the U.S. labor market get turned over at a surprising frequency, with flows into/out of unemployment being almost four times faster than in Germany, despite similar unemployment rates.1 But when U.S. workers leave jobs, they are twice as likely to go directly into another one as become unemployed.2 These job-to-job transitions make up … Continue reading
US Monetary Policy – The ‘balanced approach’ to a dual mandate in a figure
The January 2012 statement of long-run monetary policy strategy clearly expresses the FOMC’s policy intentions: It states that the FOMC’s explicit inflation objective is 2 percent for the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the long run and that maximum employment is associated with a sustainable unemployment rate that properly reflects structural developments … Continue reading
US – Unemployment dynamics and the duration of unemployment
Suppose you divided workers into two groups, which we designate as type H and type L, and conjectured that the number of newly unemployed workers each month represents a mixture of the two types and further that there are differences in the probabilities that each of the two types will be successful in finding jobs. … Continue reading
Us Older Workers Increasing Participation Rate – Why then aging is decreasing the overall rate ?
A frequent question is: “I’ve heard the participation rate for older workers is increasing, yet you say one of the reasons the overall participation rate has fallen is because people are retiring. Is this a contradiction?” Answer: This isn’t a contradiction. When we talk about an increasing participation rate for older workers, we are referring … Continue reading
US – About 14.7 million people, or 4.7 percent of the population, were near-poor in 2012
This report provides data on the demographic characteristics of people close to, but not below, official poverty thresholds from 1966 to 2012. The “near-poor” are people with family income between 100 and 125 percent of the poverty thresholds, allowing for a full examination of the low-income population. The statistics come from the Current Population Survey’s … Continue reading
1997 to 2012 in Canada – Wages and Employment of High School Graduates and Bachelor’s Degree Holders,
From the 2000-to-2002 period to the 2010-to-2012 period, average real weekly wages fell marginally for male bachelor’s degree holders who were aged 20 to 34 and employed in full-time jobs and rose about 5% for their female counterparts. In contrast, average real weekly wages among full-time job holders rose roughly 9% for men and 11% … Continue reading
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