Job Market Monitor
Michel Cournoyer
AI – Who will be the workers most affected ?
This paper examines how different socio-demographic groups experience AI at work. As AI can automate non-routine, cognitive tasks, tertiary-educated workers in “white-collar” occupations will likely face disruption, even if empirical analysis does not suggest that overall employment levels have fallen due to AI, even in “white-collar” occupations. The main risk for those without tertiary education, … Continue reading
AI and skills in Canada – Most workers exposed will not require specialised AI skills
Most workers who will be exposed to artificial intelligence (AI) will not require specialised AI skills (e.g. machine learning, natural language processing, etc.). Even so, AI will change the tasks these workers do, and the skills they require. This report provides first estimates for Canada on the effect of artificial intelligence on the demand for … Continue reading
Productivity Growth in Canada – Weakening business investment means roughly $130 billion lower GDP
In this research, we explore what’s holding back Canada’s productivity growth—and therefore the country’s prosperity—and suggest ways to give it a boost.How could Canada unlock more private sector investment without costly publicly funded incentives? In which sectors of the economy is weak productivity growth the most concerning? Could taking advantage of technologies such as artificial … Continue reading
Labour Force Survey in Canada – What about non-permanent residents (NPRs) ?
To understand the labour force survey one must begin by appreciating the limitations of its scope. The estimates do not apply to all Canadian residents, but rather are for a more restricted group. That group differs from Canada’s total population of 41,012,563 people as of April 1, 2024 by excluding the following:5 Persons under 15 … Continue reading
What will work be like in the future? BCG engaged with more than 150 futurists
What will work be like in the future? To build an understanding of what the next five decades may hold in store for workers, BCG engaged with more than 150 futurists through panel discussions and opinion surveys. Contrary to popular fears that the future will offer fewer work opportunities for people, most experts anticipate that … Continue reading
Canada-US Labour Productivity Gap – The top 10% of the income distribution accounts for two-thirds
Gross domestic product (GDP) per adult in Canada fluctuated between 70% and 90% of that of the United States between 1960 and 2020. Behind this gap lie large, systematic differences in relative incomes across the Canadian and US income distributions. There are small differences in average incomes among lower percentiles of the income distribution while … Continue reading
Productivité au Canada – Un recul au cours de 12 des 15 trimestres écoulés depuis le début de 2021
La productivité de la main-d’œuvre a enregistré un déclin trimestriel de 0,4 % (non annualisé) au troisième trimestre de 2024, après une baisse de 0,1 % au deuxième trimestre. Il s’agit de la troisième baisse consécutive en 2024, la productivité ayant reculé au cours de 12 des 15 trimestres écoulés depuis le début de 2021. … Continue reading
Lower-wage industries in Canada – Disproportionately impacted by the recent softening in labour demand
Lower-wage industries in Canada with more younger workers have been disproportionately impacted by the recent softening in labour demand, while higher-wage sectors have emerged as clear winners in a jobs market redefined by the pandemic. One silver lining in the Canadian labour market after the pandemic lockdowns was the strong demand for professional, scientific, and … Continue reading
Immigration Targets in Canada – Comparing the new targets to the recent exceptional influx presents a distorted picture
“Immigration targets slashed!” “Drastic reduction in temporary residents.” “Canada to reduce new immigration by 21 percent.” These sorts of headlines dominated the news after the federal government’s announcement to reduce Canada’s intake of permanent residents by 21 percent over the next three years, alongside new measures aimed at bringing the temporary immigrant population in line … Continue reading
Micro-credential – How to choose it
Not all micro-credential programs are created equally. If you’re looking at enrolling in a micro-credential, here are some questions to consider. If you or your client are looking at enrolling in a micro-credential program, here are some questions to consider. 1. Does the micro-credential program focus on a specific, practical and in-demand skill? 2. Is … Continue reading
Immigration in OECD – a new record in 2023, with 6.5 million migrants arriving
Permanent migration to OECD countries hit a new record in 2023, with 6.5 million migrants arriving. The number of temporary migrants and asylum seekers has also risen sharply, according to a new OECD report. International Migration Outlook 2024 says that most of the 2023 increase in permanent-type migration was driven by family migration (+18%). Humanitarian … Continue reading
The Future of Good Jobs in US – Projections through 2031 by CEW Georgetown
Future job market trends will favor workers with higher levels of education and training, resulting in fewer jobs for workers with a high school diploma or less, and more jobs for workers with college degrees and certificates. Even against a backdrop of economic uncertainty—driven by high inflation and interest rates, generative AI, international conflicts, changing … Continue reading
Beveridge Curves – Once the labor market crosses back over the threshold, further reductions in inflation are likely to be more costly
This paper reexamines the Phillips and Beveridge curves to explain the inflation surge in the U.S. during the 2020s. We argue that the pre-surge consensus regarding both curves requires substantial revision. We propose that the Inverse-L (INV-L) New Keynesian Phillips Curve replace the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The INV-L curve is piecewise-linear and more … Continue reading
New Immigration Targets in Canada – Could subtract nearly 1 percentage point from growth forecast
The Canadian government has been under growing pressure to align the inflow of newcomers to the country with current labour market needs and infrastructure capacity—which prompted a massive reversal of the post-pandemic immigration plan set by the federal government. Ambitious immigration targets were originally put forward to tackle labour market imbalances and financial stress on … Continue reading
Wage Growth in Canada – Composition-adjusted wage growth significantly below the average growth
Wage growth is a key indicator that central banks monitor because labour costs are an important component of production costs and inflation. However, average wage growth can be a misleading measure of inflationary pressures. This is because it is a simple average of the wages earned by millions of people who have different skills, levels … Continue reading
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