Labour Force Survey in Canada – What about non-permanent residents (NPRs) ?

To understand the labour force survey one must begin by appreciating the limitations of its scope. The estimates do not apply to all Canadian residents, but rather are for a more restricted group. That group differs from Canada’s total population of 41,012,563 people as of April 1, 2024 by excluding the following:5

1. Persons under 15 years of age,
2. Persons living in one of the three territories,
3. Residents of regions that are extremely remote or of extremely low population density,
4. Full-time members of the Canadian forces,
5. Persons living on reserves and other First Nations settlements and
6. Persons living in prisons, care facilities and other live-in institutions.

It also differs from the total population in the way it includes non-permanent residents (NPRs) — asylum claimants, persons with student visas and those with temporary work permits. The official Canadian population statistics include the best available quarterly estimate of the number of NPRs whereas the LFS target population includes a 12-month uncentered moving-average of the best available monthly estimate.

[O]ne should not interpret the LFS target population estimates as being simply the total population with the six components referred to in section 2 removed. That would have been roughly correct a few years ago, but not more recently. The 12-month moving average that is applied to its NPR component, though its effects were relatively small for many years when the NPR population was not growing as rapidly and represented a smaller share in the total population, currently has a substantial impact in the estimates for 2022 and 2023 and will likely continue to do so in 2024 and possibly 2025.

Does this affect materially the LFS estimates of the various labour market rates — of unemployment, employment, labour force participation and monthly growth? Statistics Canada assures me it does not.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @  An interesting and not widely understood aspect of the Force Survey