International Students in Canada – Their number will continue to grow by 100,000—about 55% less than the net increase in 2023

The federal government’s new cap on international study permit applications will not immediately reduce rental demand from international students this year—but it should dramatically slow its growth in 2024.
We estimate the increase in rental units demanded by international students could fall by roughly half in 2024.
The number of international students living in Canada—and rental units they need—would eventually decline if the cap is maintained at the current level and beyond its expiry in 2025.
Ottawa has introduced a suite of initiatives to support a rebalancing of the rental market, given housing affordability has reached crisis levels in Canada. The latest is a new cap on international study permit applications that will be approved over the next two years. The number of permits issued will be capped at 364,000 as of September 2024—which is nearly half of the 684,000 permits issued in 2023.

However, the number of study permits issued in a year is only one factor that contributes to the number of international students who are physically living in Canada at any given time. Students that came in prior years, the share of permit applicants that go on to enroll, and expiring permits of graduating students are other crucial contributors.

Assuming similar enrollment rates and outflow patterns as those observed in the three post-pandemic years, we estimate 391,000 new international students will enter Canada this year and 291,000 will graduate or otherwise see their study permits expire. This means the number of international students in Canada will continue to grow by 100,000—about 55% less than the net increase in 2023.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @  RBC Royal Bank