Immigration in Canada – The Prairie provinces and the territories experience declines in five-year retention rates, while those of Atlantic provinces are on the rise

Immigration is a key contributor to Canada’s population growth, as the Canadian population continues to age and the fertility rate hit a record low. Understanding the extent to which immigrants remained in their intended destination provinces and territories can help develop policy to attract and retain newcomers. This can also help provinces and territories provide necessary services and infrastructure.

Using data from the 2022 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB), this release examines the provincial and territorial immigrant retention rates—the percentage of immigrant taxfilers who filed taxes in the province or territory where the immigrant intended to live in Canada, as indicated in their application for permanent residence—one year and five years after admission. Examining the one-year and five-year retention rates sheds light on the short- and medium-term settlement patterns of successive immigrant admission cohorts.

This release highlights variations in retention rates of immigrants by geography and admission category, with the focus on comparisons among the most recent admission cohorts available in the 2022 IMDB. The IMDB is the result of a collaboration between Statistics Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, and the provinces.

The Prairie provinces and the territories experience declines in five-year retention rates, while those of Atlantic provinces are on the rise

Among immigrants admitted from 2012 to 2016, those who intended to reside in Ontario, British Columbia or Alberta were the most likely to stay in those provinces five years after their admission. Specifically, among immigrants admitted in 2016, the five-year retention rate was 93.1% in Ontario, 87.3% in British Columbia and 84.5% in Alberta. Quebec was not far behind, with a five-year retention rate of 81.0% among the 2016 admission cohort. While the five-year retention rates remained relatively consistent over time in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec, Alberta experienced a drop of 7.0 percentage points from 91.5% for the 2012 admission cohort.

Most of the other provinces and territories also experienced a decline in the five-year retention rate of immigrants admitted from 2012 to 2016. The Prairie provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, along with the territories, experienced the largest drops in the five-year retention rate of immigrants. In Saskatchewan, the five-year retention rate was down by 14.3 percentage points from the 2012 admission cohort (72.2%) to that of 2016 (57.9%). In Manitoba, the five-year retention rate fell by 11.0 percentage points, from 75.1% among immigrants admitted in 2012 to 64.1% for those admitted in 2016.

In the territories, 64.3% of immigrants admitted in 2016 were still filing taxes in the territories five years later. This was a decrease of 8.7% from 73.0% for the 2012 admission cohort.

In the Atlantic region, both New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island experienced an uptick in the five-year retention rate for immigrants who were admitted in 2016. New Brunswick (56.0%) reached its highest five-year retention rate for immigrants admitted in 2016, after being relatively stable for immigrants admitted from 2012 to 2015. Prince Edward Island (30.9%) had the lowest retention rate in Canada for immigrants admitted in 2016, but this was 5.7 percentage points higher than the rate of the 2012 cohort (25.2%). During the same period, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador had relatively stable trends in the five-year provincial immigrant retention rate, with some fluctuations.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @ The Daily — Provincial variation in the retention rates of immigrants, 2022