AI Capabilities and Risks in UK – A discussion paper

This discussion paper was written to inform discussions at the AI Safety Summit 2023. It does not represent government policy.

Generative AI development has the potential to bring significant global benefits. But it will also increase risks to safety and security by enhancing threat actor capabilities and increasing the effectiveness of attacks.

• The development and adoption of generative AI technologies has the potential to bring substantial benefits if managed appropriately. Productivity
and innovation across many sectors including healthcare, finance and information technology will accelerate.
• Generative AI will also significantly increase risks to safety and security. By 2025, generative AI is more likely to amplify existing risks than create wholly new ones, but it will increase sharply the speed and scale of some threats. The difficulty of predicting technological advances creates significant potential for technological surprise; additional threats
will almost certainly emerge that have not been anticipated.
• The rapid proliferation and increasing accessibility of these technologies will almost certainly enable less-sophisticated threat actors to conduct previously unattainable attacks.
• Risks in the digital sphere (e.g. cyber-attacks, fraud, scams, impersonation, child sexual abuse images) are most likely to manifest and to have the highest impact to 2025.
• Risks to political systems and societies will increase in likelihood as the technology develops and adoption widens. Proliferation of synthetic media risks eroding democratic engagement and public trust in the institutions of government.
• Physical security risks will likely rise as Generative AI becomes embedded in more physical systems, including critical infrastructure.
• The aggregate risk is significant. The preparedness of countries, industries and society to mitigate these risks varies. Globally regulation is incomplete and highly likely failing to anticipate future developments.

Source: Frontier AI: capabilities and risks – discussion paper – GOV.UK