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The Job Gap to Come – In need to create 734 million decent jobs between 2010 and 2030

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent for youth.

Two key features of the global economic landscape further magnify the challenge of job creation. First, roughly 91 percent of the new jobs will be required in low- and lower-middle- income countries, where traditions of “decent work” are not well entrenched. Indeed, with respect to the need to create decent jobs, the magnitude of the challenge facing the world is without historical precedent. Second, rapid progress has occurred in the area of automation over the last decade, whereby many jobs previously deemed to be nonautomatable are now regarded as having a high likelihood of being automated over the next two decades.

This paper explores the number and quality of jobs that need to be created to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts and account for plausible changes in labour force participation and unemployment rates. We examine these patterns globally; by geographic region, country income group, and human development category; and over time. We distinguish the effects of demographic change on job creation that reflect accounting from those that reflect behaviour, and we address the implications of automation.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Demography, Unemployment, Automation, and Digitalization: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 2010–2030 | IZA – Institute of Labor Economics

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