That means that renewed worries about an imminent rise in British rates, which have just resurfaced this week following hawkish remarks from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and outgoing rate-setter David Miles, might not be on such a solid footing.
Not so long ago, Britain was dishing out new jobs so astonishingly quickly that Carney — then the new BoE Governor just in from Canada — had to tear up his forward guidance on interest rates based on a future unemployment rate trigger for when to raise rates.
The jobless rate had fallen too far, too fast, and a rate hike from zero surely was just around the corner, went the thinking at the time. The problem was that inflation was too low and heading even lower, preventing the BoE, which targets inflation at 2 percent, from hiking.
Fast forward a year and, Bank Rate is still at a record low of 0.50 percent, and inflation is at zero – not just in Britain but also near there for many of its top trading partners like the euro zone and the United States.
But the jobless rate, while very low, has stopped falling so quickly. It rose for the first time in two years in June, to 5.6 percent.
The claimant count for jobless benefits also unexpectedly rose, breaking a long period of gradually tapering declines.
Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at Britain’s job miracle starting to look slightly less miraculous.