Canada | Labour Market roars back in March but economists are skeptical about recent swings in data

Bumpy patterns in Canada’s labour force survey are causing headaches for economists.

The last jobs report showing a 82,300 employment gain was the biggest bump since the onset of the recession and the fourth-largest increase ever. Most economists are skeptical about both the outsized gain and the job market’s weakness in previous months.

It also comes after plenty of head-scratching at the provincial level. Quebec’s job market suggested the province was in recession-like conditions by the end of last year – even as other economic indicators showed modest growth. Then in March, job growth suddenly surged in the province.

Jobs report stumps economists – The Globe and Mail

The unevenness has sparked a flurry of questions for people like Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank Financial, who uses the data to produce economic forecasts.

When he meets with foreign investors keen on Canada or provincial governments preparing budgets, one theme dominates: What is wrong with Canada’s jobs market? “I’ve been questioned a lot,” he says.

The labour force survey is the earliest major economic release of the month, and most economists view it as the most important indicator, influencing monetary policy, public policy and financial markets. Companies use employment data to budget where and when to hire, and workers use it to assess where prospects are brightest.

Last month’s employment jump, after four months of little change, highlights how volatile jobs data can be, and the importance of using three or six-month trends to assess the real health of the labour market.

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Read more @ Jobs report stumps economists – The Globe and Mail.

Canada | Labour Market roars back in March

Following four months of little change, employment increased by 82,000 in March, mostly in full-time work. This brought the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%.

Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up 1.1% or 197,000. Almost all of this growth was in full-time employment, up 181,000 (+1.3%), while part-time employment edged up. The total number of hours worked rose 1.6% over the same period.

Employment increased in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba, while it declined in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Employment

Over the same period, the unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 9.0% in Yukon and rose from 6.3% to 8.7% in the Northwest Territories, as more people were looking for work. The unemployment rate in Nunavut declined from 17.3% to 15.3%, as fewer people participated in the labour market.

Unemployment rate

Read More @ Labour Force Survey, March 2012.

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Canada’s stalled jobs market roars back in March | Business | Reuters

Canada’s stagnant job market bounced back in March with a stunning 82,300 net new jobs, the biggest jump since September 2008, in a possible turning point for the economy that could put pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.

The job gains, reported by Statistics Canada on Thursday, were spread fairly evenly across several sectors and were mainly in the private sector and in full-time positions.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast, on average, a gain of just 10,000 jobs in the month.

“Hibernation is over for Canadian employment. After a lengthy lull it’s come roaring back with a rather incredible gain,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

The jobless rate in the month dipped to a six-month low of 7.2 percent from 7.4 percent, compared with expectations for a rise to 7.5 percent.

Canadian jobs data tends to be volatile month-to-month and policy makers usually like to see the data over several months before declaring a trend.

via Canada’s stalled jobs market roars back in March | Business | Reuters.