Toronto tops New York in risk of condo bubble | Mortgages | Personal Finance | Financial Post

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A sliver of land wedged between Toronto’s elevated expressway and an off-ramp that pumps traffic into downtown may become the epicenter for a Canadian housing bubble.

In four years, this site that’s now used as a parking lot and police impound near the shores of Lake Ontario will be home to Ten York, a 75-story glass building that would be the country’s third-tallest condo tower.

Toronto has more skyscrapers and high-rises under construction than any North American city — almost three times as many as New York — stoking debate on whether the condominium market in Canada’s largest city is headed for a U.S.-style correction as prices rise and household borrowing hits a record. Canadian lenders including Toronto-Dominion Bank last week raised mortgage rates to cool off the housing market.

“Condo construction has always been rather prone to boom and bust cycles, and this one seems particularly strong,” said Sheryl King, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Toronto. “Builders seem to overestimate how much demand is going to be out there, and that’s when you tend to see some abrupt pull-back.”

Canada’s housing market is about 10% overvalued, with inflated prices primarily in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, King said in a telephone interview. “We would call it a bubble,” she said.

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