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Phillips curve
Inflation and the Phillips Curve in US – Why the flatness ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999–2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer prices. … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US and Europe – The large drop in US core inflation is fully accounted for by sharply higher unemployment but it still a genuine puzzle in the Euro zone
• The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, … • something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.” • Rising unemployment and weak demand are now pushing inflation down, … • though low inflation does not mean that something is automatically “missing.” • We update our Phillips curve … Continue reading
The Phillips Curve – Yes, there is a trade-off
The Phillips curve is unstable and, therefore, an imperfect guide for policy. But unstable does not mean nonexistent, and imperfect does not mean useless. As long as the tools of monetary policy influence both inflation and unemployment, monetary policymakers must be cognizant of the trade-off. Mr. Powell was smart to acknowledge during his congressional hearing … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – What about the Phillips Curve ?
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999– 2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer … Continue reading
Inflation and Unemployment in US – The flattening of the Phillips curve
I’m thinking about the rest of us, starting at the top—with the Fed—who are struggling to figure out the nature of the tradeoff as the Fed begins to contemplate unwinding. Given Chair Yellen’s (very appropriate) focus on job-market slack and thus her up-weighting of the full employment side of the mandate, there’s clearly some anxiety … Continue reading
US – Short and long-term unemployment exert equal downward pressure on price inflation says FEDS research
In the years following 2009, long-term unemployment has been very elevated while inflation has fallen only moderately, raising the question of whether the long-term unemployed exert less downward pressure on prices than the short-term unemployed, perhaps because such potential workers are disconnected from the labor market. However, empirical evidence is mixed. This analysis demonstrates that … Continue reading
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