Job Market Monitor
Great Recession
US / When will the Jobs Gap be filled ?
Below is an update of the graph showing job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, with a projection assuming the current rate of payroll growth will continue. This suggests that employment will exceed the pre-recession peak around July 2014 (Private employment will reach a new high around March of 2014). … Continue reading
US / The historic decline in the employment-population ratios
‘The decline in the employment-population ratios for men and women over 2000–07, just before the Great Recession, represents a historic turnaround in U.S. employment trends’ writes Robert A. Moffitt in The Reversal of the Employment- Population Ratio in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations on brookings.edu. (Adapted chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor to follow) The decline is disproportionately concentrated among the less … Continue reading
Community-wide Job Loss on Student Achievement : Research finds positive effects on student enrollment in courses that keep them on-track to attend college
‘Understanding the impact of job loss on student achievement has grown increasingly important given the widespread job loss that occurred during the Great Recession’ writes Andy Chiamopoulos in The Effects of Community-wide Job Loss on Student Achievement on dukespace.lib.duke.edu. (Adapted chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor to follow) The author evaluates the impact of the county-level job loss within North Carolina on 9 classes … Continue reading
US / The Uneven Recovery: Only the Top 7% get A Rise in Wealth
During the first two years of the nation’s economic recovery, the mean net worth of households in the upper 7% of the wealth distribution rose by an estimated 28%, while the mean net worth of households in the lower 93% dropped by 4%, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of newly released Census Bureau … Continue reading
Illinois / The jobs crisis: only Nevada has a higher unemployment rate
The economic recovery in Illinois remains terribly weak. Our state has failed to make a strong comeback from the Great Recession that ended four years ago, in June 2009. We are falling further behind not just Texas, but practically every other state — including states such as Indiana that can make stronger arguments for luring … Continue reading
Unemployment has been a much bigger problem than inflation for ordinary people research finds
“Previous literature has found that both unemployment and inflation lower happiness” write David G. Blanchflower, David N.F. Bell, Alberto Montagnoli and Mirko Moro in The effects of macroeconomic shocks on well-being (Adapted chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor to follow). The macroeconomist Arthur Okun characterised the negative effects of unemployment and inflation by the misery index – the sum of the … Continue reading
After the Great Recession: The Challenge
Joshua Meltzer, David Steven and Claire Langley in The United States After the Great Recession: The Challenge of Sustainable Growth (Brookings Institution) write: “Never before has our nation enjoyed, at once, so much prosperity and social progress with so little internal crisis and so few external threats,” President Clinton argued in January 2000 in his final State … Continue reading
US / Unemployment / The Economic Nightmare is not over
The broadest measure of unemployment/underemployment, which is the “SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate” published by Shadow Government Statistics, remained at 23.0% in January, its highest level ever. This measure was at 17.6% when Bush 43 left office. Also last month, America moved another 186,000 jobs away from full employment, to a total of 15.0 million. This … Continue reading
Great Recession Fifth Anniversary: The case of Older Workers
December 2012 marked the fifth year since the official onset of the Great Recession in December 2007 and more than three years since its official end in June 2009. What does the picture look like for Americans aged 55 and older today? More older people are in the labor force, either working or looking for … Continue reading
What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Great Recession? – Infographic
Source: CBO | What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession? – Infographic.
United States and the major European economies – Bouncing Back from the Great Recession
When the economic shocks that cause recessions in different economies have large common components, there may be lessons to be learned by studying how different economies respond write Thomas F. Cooley, B. Ravikumar, and Peter Rupert in Bouncing Back from the Great Recession: The United States Versus Europe in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses (Adapted … Continue reading
US – Suicide Rate Rose During The Great Recession
The rate of suicide in the United States rose sharply during the first few years since the start of the recession, a new analysis has found. In the report, which appeared Sunday on the Web site of The Lancet, a medical journal, researchers found that the rate between 2008 and 2010 increased four times faster … Continue reading
GM, Chrysler – Romney he’s wrong about Chinese jobs claim
“Barack Obama says he saved the auto industry. But for who? Ohio or China?” says the narrator in a radio spot running now in Ohio. “Under President Obama, GM cut 15,000 Americanjobs, but they are planning to double the number of cars built in China, … . GM, Chrysler tell Romney he’s wrong about Chinese … Continue reading
Labor-market failures will not be demand-side but structural, not amenable to any straightforward and easily implemented cure
J. Bradford DeLong At first, the long-term unemployed in the Great Depression searched eagerly and diligently for alternative sources of work. But, after six months or so passed without successful reemployment, they tended to become discouraged and distraught. After 12 months of continuous unemployment, the typical unemployed worker still searched for a job, but in … Continue reading
US Unemployment: On the Supernatural Rate
The Natural Rate Hypothesis has been around us for … since Freidman presidential adress (1968?). Economists know that the definition lies on shaky grounds: the general “equilibrium” referred to in the definition has never existed or proven to exist. But assuming it does exist, we should add a concept acounting for the huge gap between … Continue reading
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