Job Market Monitor
Great Depression
COVID and the Great Depression – Let’s not pretend it’s anything like 1929
For the most part, though, wages were so low that even employed people could afford only the fewest of non-essentials. There was little entertainment. My father reminisced once that a big night out was when four friends shared the cost of a case of beer and played cards all evening. Chosen excerpts by Job Market … Continue reading
COVID and Recession – ‘We’re heading into a Great Depression’ Ray Dalio says (Bridgewater Associates with $160 billion in assets)
Ray Dalio believes we are hitting a depression similar to that of the 1930s, which will take years of financial and economic reconfiguration and human ingenuity to recover from, as he discussed in a Wednesday Ted Connects talk. “We’re not going to go back the way it was,” said Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio in … Continue reading
EuroZone / A Great Depression?
The Great Depression was a period of severe economic contraction that lasted many years. In the United States real GDP fell every year from 1929 to 1933, when it reached only 73 percent of its 1929 level. Starting in 1934 the recovery was quite rapid, with GDP reaching its 1929 level in 1936. By contrast … Continue reading
Labor-market failures will not be demand-side but structural, not amenable to any straightforward and easily implemented cure
J. Bradford DeLong At first, the long-term unemployed in the Great Depression searched eagerly and diligently for alternative sources of work. But, after six months or so passed without successful reemployment, they tended to become discouraged and distraught. After 12 months of continuous unemployment, the typical unemployed worker still searched for a job, but in … Continue reading
Greece – In Great Depression PM says
Greece is in a “Great Depression” similar to the American one in the 1930s, the country’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras told former U.S. President Bill Clinton on Sunday. Samaras was speaking two days before a team of Greece’s international lenders arrive in Athens to push for further cuts needed for the debt-laden country to qualify … Continue reading
Europe – Unemployment – A tragic past
Just like in the 1930s, when the Great Depression caused youth unemployment to hit the 50% levels in Germany, the current financial crisis is wreaking havoc on young people. Young people are always hardest hit due to their lack of work experience. This is now accentuated as the youngster from Athens competes directly against the … Continue reading
Depression-era seniors experience – How will the attitudes of today’s young adults be affected
For the fifth consecutive year, newly minted college graduates face a weak labor market and a painfully slow recovery. Many young adults who have found work are languishing in low-paying, no-benefit jobs that don’t require degrees. Some still live with their parents and are saddled with debt, delaying full-fledged adulthood indefinitely. The Depression’s impact on … Continue reading
US Unemployment Rate – Is 8% the New Norm ?
This decade is shaping up to be the worst for unemployment since the Great Depression. The U.S. unemployment rate has been above 8% for more than three long years, far above the 5.4% average of the seven full decades since the Great Depression. Job growth, as measured by the household survey that calculates the jobless … Continue reading
Job Market Recovery – Great Recession vs Great Depression
( By Bill McBride) – The causes of the Great Recession were similar to the Great Depression – as opposed to most post war recessions that were caused by Fed tightening to slow inflation – and I’m frequently asked if we could compare the percent job losses during the two periods. Unfortunately there is very little data … Continue reading
Listen to John Maynard Keynes’ voice on High Unemployment
When someone questions the effectiveness of Keynesian economics, the obvious reply is: Remember World War II? The British economist John Maynard Keynes argued that there is a role for government intervention when aggregate demand for goods and services drops, as it did during the Great Depression. Without increased public spending to make up for decreased … Continue reading
36% Of working-age Americans not currently working
What is the current percentage of working-age Americans, eligible to participate in the civilian labor force, but not currently working? Answer: 36.3 percent. That’s the worst labor participation rate in three decades, and it’s part of the worst employment picture we’ve seen since the Great Depression. Labor force participation is the number we should really … Continue reading
Wall Street To Cut 21,000 Jobs
Wall Street is earning profits at the moment but that doesn’t mean jobs on the famous financial exchanges of New York are safe as Wall Street recruiters announced this week that “job creators” will be slashing 21,000 jobs from the securities divisions alone. Analysts predict that worldwide cuts will be even larger as big banks … Continue reading
Great Recession vs Great Depression : Not as deep but recovery much slower
The causes of the Great Recession were similar to the Great Depression – as opposed to most post war recessions that were caused by Fed tightening to slow inflation – and I’m frequently asked if we could compare the percent job losses during the two periods. Unfortunately there is very little data for the Great … Continue reading
U.S. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE | How To Respond to Persistently High Unemployment
The rate of unemployment in the United States has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, making the past three years the longest stretch of high unemployment in this country since the Great Depression. CBO projects that the unemployment rate will remain above 8 percent until 2014. The share of unemployed people who have been looking … Continue reading
Who loses in the Great Recession? Those groups who lost in the recessions of the 1980s
“The labor market decline during Great Recession and its aftermath has been both deeper and longer than the early 1980s recession—indeed, the longest and deepest since the Great Depression” write Hilary Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller in Who Suffers During Recessions? published on econ.ucdavis.edu. (Adapted excerpts by Job Market Monitor follow) The labor market effects of the Great … Continue reading
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