Job Market Monitor
Fiscal policy
COVID, UI and Fiscal Policy – Enhancing automatic stabilizers, especially improving unemployment benefit systems and social safety nets, can protect household incomes FMI says
This chapter argues that fiscal policies are at the forefront of facilitating an economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic once the Great Lockdown ends. Policymakers can achieve this objective with IDEAS: Invest for the future—in health systems, infrastructure, low carbon technologies, education, and research; adopt well-planned Discretionary policies that can be deployed quickly; and Enhance … Continue reading
Fiscal Policy and Youth Unemployment – Direct intervention in youth labour markets is also called for
One of the most consistent findings of the literature on the causes of youth labour market outcomes is that aggregate demand is a fundamental determinant of the state of the youth labour market. Recent research has also reaffirmed the importance of expansionary fiscal policy in counteracting, or at least mitigating, the negative effects of the … Continue reading
Can growth alone tackle unemployment? No, fiscal policy must be as growth-friendly as possible
Can growth alone tackle unemployment? Evidence is summarized in Figure 2, which shows the growth-jobs nexus using two alternate measure of the state of labor markets, the unemployment rate and the growth rate of employment. The left panel of Figure 2 shows that, among advanced economies on average, unemployment falls by a third of a … Continue reading
US / Christina Romer: Use fiscal policy, the other main tool
In a fascinating speech last week at Johns Hopkins (via Matthew Klein), former Obama economic advisor Christy Romer proposes a totally different framework for stimulus. Essentially we lean on fiscal stimulus more, but we set it up so that it’s permanently flexible … and thus more like monetary policy. So when the economy goes to … Continue reading
US / Fiscal ‘mess’ undermines Fed on jobs says Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher
“As long as inflationary expectations are held at bay, we can fully open the monetary throttle in an effort to deliver on the mandate Congress gave us to help achieve full employment,” said Fisher. “But it is for naught as long as the fiscal authorities are slamming on the brakes and leaving everyone in the dark as to how they will cure the fiscal mess they have wrought.” Continue reading
US / For each dollar of federal highway grants received by a state, that state’s GSP rises by at least two dollars
Federal highway grants to states appear to boost economic activity in the short and medium term. The short-term effects appear to be due largely to increases in aggregate demand. Medium-term effects apparently reflect the increased productive capacity brought by improved roads. Overall, each dollar of federal highway grants received by a state raises that state’s … Continue reading
US – Federal Employees – 2 percent of total employment, less than half of what it was in the early 1960s
In our country, tax cuts and spending increases gave the economy a badly needed boost in the depths of the recession and early in the recovery. But these stimulus measures have been expiring. At the same time, states and localities have cut spending and raised taxes as they struggle to balance their budgets. As a … Continue reading
Fiscal policy, at both the federal and state and local levels: headwinds for unemployment reduction says Bernanke
The accommodative monetary policies I have reviewed today, both traditional and nontraditional, have provided important support to the economic recovery while helping to maintain price stability… Notwithstanding these positive signs, the economic situation is obviously far from satisfactory… Further, the rate of improvement in the labor market has been painfully slow. I have noted on … Continue reading
Labor-market failures will not be demand-side but structural, not amenable to any straightforward and easily implemented cure
J. Bradford DeLong At first, the long-term unemployed in the Great Depression searched eagerly and diligently for alternative sources of work. But, after six months or so passed without successful reemployment, they tended to become discouraged and distraught. After 12 months of continuous unemployment, the typical unemployed worker still searched for a job, but in … Continue reading
Academic economists played a big role in causing the crisis says Joseph Stiglitz
Academic economists played a big role in causing the crisis. Their models were overly simplified, distorted, and left out the most important aspects. Those faulty models then encouraged policy-makers to believe that the markets would solve all the problems. Before the crisis, if I had been a narrow-minded economist, I would have been very pleased … Continue reading
What is the price to save the Euro : Isn’t Worth Saving writes Matthew O’Brien
Welcome to life in a suboptimal currency area. After all, countries that share a currency also share monetary policy. If they don’t share fiscal policy too — that is, there is no centralized treasury — they can get into trouble. Just ask Europe. But as Christian Odendahl at The Economist points out, this also means that … Continue reading
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