Job Market Monitor
Economy
COVID, Jobs and Lockdown in UK – Can take more than 6.5m jobs out of the economy
Estimates produced by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Essex suggest the lockdown can take more than 6.5m jobs out of the economy -around a quarter of the total.The study led by Professor Matteo Richiardi with ISER researcher Diego Collado uses ONS data to predict job losses by sector.Using … Continue reading
COVID in America – Pictures from the Great Depression and from last week
Straggling in a Good Economy, and Now Struggling in a Crisis The coronavirus pandemic has shown how close to the edge many Americans were living, with pay and benefits eroding even as corporate profits surged. Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @ Coronavirus Crisis Underlines Weak Spots in U.S. Economic System – The … Continue reading
COVID and Quebec Economy – A drop 3.5 times larger than the one recorded during the recession in 2009 but a sharp rebound next year the Conference Board says
Quebec’s economy has grown at a brisk pace over the past few years, with real GDP expanding by an annual average of 2.8 per cent between 2017 and 2019. However, the coronavirus pandemic will throw Quebec’s economy into a tailspin this year, with real GDP forecast to decline by 3.8 per cent—a drop 3.5 times … Continue reading
COVID Economic Impact – The Bank of Canada point of views
The Canadian economy was in a solid position ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, but has since been hit by widespread shutdowns and lower oil prices. One early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in March, with more than one million jobs lost across Canada. Many more workers reported … Continue reading
COVID – Scenarios of the economic impact
Amid the fast-moving pandemic and the policy responses, economic forecasting has become an unusually uncertain enterprise. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, for example, canceled the March release of its forward-looking composite leading indicator. Forecasts in this period must be looked upon with robust skepticism. Moody’s Investors Service, one of the most respected forecasting … Continue reading
COVID and Jobs in US – A second sound of layoffs has begun
The first people to lose their jobs worked at restaurants, malls, hotels and other places that closed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Higher skilled work, which often didn’t require personal contact, seemed more secure. That’s not how it’s turning out. A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses … Continue reading
COVID in UK – Office for Budget Responsibility warns of 35% fall GDP and unemployment up to 10%
Evidence from past pandemics suggests that the economic impact of the coronavirus will arise much less from people falling ill or dying than from the public health restrictions and social distancing required to limit its spread. This will reduce demand for goods and services and the ability of businesses and public sector institutions to supply … Continue reading
COVID and Jobs around the World – Expected to wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours equivalent to 195 million full-time workers in Q2 2020 ILO says
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020 – equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. Large reductions are foreseen in the Arab States (8.1 per cent, equivalent to 5 million full-time workers), Europe (7.8 per cent, or 12 million full-time workers) and Asia … Continue reading
COVID and Unemployment in US – 33 percent of voters have already lost their job survey finds
The financial impact of the coronavirus is hitting Americans hard: thirty-three percent of voters have already lost their job, been furloughed, placed on temporary leave, or had hours reduced, with 41 percent of those who’ve lost a job already reporting having trouble covering basic costs. Black Americans are feeling the worst of the financial crisis … Continue reading
COVID Impact on Unemployment in US – Scenarios by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate in response to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full impact of the pandemic on the economy is still uncertain and depends on many factors. Analysis suggests that allowing the federal funds rate to fall fast will help the economy cope with the aftermath of COVID-19. … Continue reading
COVID and Jobs in Europe – Getting back to work
In this article, we describe how European policy makers and business leaders can think about how to prioritize both protecting lives and restoring livelihoods. Even in countries where lockdowns are unlikely to be lifted for several weeks, governments and companies need to be planning and preparing to restart their economies. We start from three observations: … Continue reading
COVID Macroeconomic Implications – Can a supply shocks bring demand deficiency ?
Jean-Baptiste Say is famously misquoted for stating the Law “supply creates its own demand.” In this paper, we introduce a concept that might be accurately portrayed as “supply creates its own excess demand”. Namely, a negative supply shock can trigger a demand shortage that leads to a contraction in output and employment larger than the … Continue reading
COVID and Jobs Recovery in US – 2.5 million jobs lost through 2021 according to survey
The number of jobs destroyed by the U.S. economy’s crisis-driven sudden stop could top 4.5 million, according to the median estimate of 45 forecasters surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics. Fewer than 2 million of those positions will be recovered by the end of 2021, the economists expect, pushing the unemployment rate above … Continue reading
COVID and the Economy in US – JPMorgan now sees economy contracting by 40%, and unemployment reaching 20%
JPMorgan economists cut their second-quarter forecast even more, now expecting the economy will decline by 40%. The economists said the 16.8 million jobless claims filed in the last three weeks indicate a huge surge in job losses, which they estimate at 25 million in April. A number of Wall Street firms expect contractions in the … Continue reading
COVID Economic Shock of Coronavirus – Examining the shape (V, U or L ?)
The concept of a recession is binary and blunt. All it says is that expectations have flipped from positive to negative growth, at least for two consecutive quarters. We think the bigger scenario question revolves around the shape of the shock — what we call “shock geometry” — and its structural legacy. What drives the … Continue reading
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