Job Market Monitor
Calculated Risk
US – Labor Force Participation Rate Update
A significant decline in the participation rate had been expected, and probably half or more of the recent decline in the participation rate was due to changing demographics (and long term trends), as opposed to economic weakness. A few key long terms trends include: • A decline in participation for those in the 16 to … Continue reading
Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs under US Presidents – Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama
There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the ’80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change. Of course the participation rate was increasing in the ’80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is declining now. But these graphs give … Continue reading
US Job Market Nearly ‘In Recession’
US Job Market Nearly ‘In Recession’ “…Some economists and analysts now wonder if the BLS seasonal adjustments are somehow off a bit. If the financial crisis and recession mucked with the seasonal ebb and flow of the economy, then the adjustments that BLS makes for its monthly reports might be a bit skewed. Some jobs … Continue reading
Declining Participation Rate | Any bounceback in the participation rate will be fairly small
The Chart Below from Calculated Risk shows the actual annual participation rate and two forecasts based on changes in demographics. Now that the leading edge of the baby boom generation is starting to retire, the participation rate is declining and will probably continue to decline for the next 20 years. Note: the yellow line is … Continue reading
UPDATE – Is american manufacturing in crisis?
As pointed out by Calculated Risk, industrial production is still 4.1% below the pre-recession peak. And, from the job market perspective, things are worse. Manufacturing’s decline in jobs is part of a complicated picture Is manufacturing in crisis? That’s a question on the minds of many policy makers. Even President Barack Obama talked about it in … Continue reading
Is american manufacturing in crisis?
As pointed out by Calculated Risk, industrial production is still 4.1% below the pre-recession peak. And, from the job market perspective, things are worse. Manufacturing’s decline in jobs is part of a complicated picture Is manufacturing in crisis? That’s a question on the minds of many policy makers. Even President Barack Obama talked about it in … Continue reading
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