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COVID and Unemployment in US – 33 percent of voters have already lost their job survey finds
The financial impact of the coronavirus is hitting Americans hard: thirty-three percent of voters have already lost their job, been furloughed, placed on temporary leave, or had hours reduced, with 41 percent of those who’ve lost a job already reporting having trouble covering basic costs. Black Americans are feeling the worst of the financial crisis … Continue reading
COVID and Jobs in Europe – Getting back to work
In this article, we describe how European policy makers and business leaders can think about how to prioritize both protecting lives and restoring livelihoods. Even in countries where lockdowns are unlikely to be lifted for several weeks, governments and companies need to be planning and preparing to restart their economies. We start from three observations: … Continue reading
COVID and the Economy in US – JPMorgan now sees economy contracting by 40%, and unemployment reaching 20%
JPMorgan economists cut their second-quarter forecast even more, now expecting the economy will decline by 40%. The economists said the 16.8 million jobless claims filed in the last three weeks indicate a huge surge in job losses, which they estimate at 25 million in April. A number of Wall Street firms expect contractions in the … Continue reading
COVID Economic Shock of Coronavirus – Examining the shape (V, U or L ?)
The concept of a recession is binary and blunt. All it says is that expectations have flipped from positive to negative growth, at least for two consecutive quarters. We think the bigger scenario question revolves around the shape of the shock — what we call “shock geometry” — and its structural legacy. What drives the … Continue reading
Job Report in Canada, March 2020 – With only partial impact of COVID, employment fell by more than one million
Employment fell by more than one million in March (-1,011,000 or -5.3%). The employment rate—or the proportion of people aged 15 and older who were employed—fell 3.3 percentage points to 58.5%, the lowest rate since April 1997. Of those who were employed in March, the number who did not work any hours during the reference week (March 15 to 21) increased by 1.3 million, while the number … Continue reading
COVID in – More jobs lost than US did during the Depression
While we wait to get a clearer picture of the health coronavirus curve in India, we already have the first estimate of the job-destruction caused by the nation-wide lockdown. The numbers are staggering, worse than anything the world has ever known. More jobs were lost in India in the last two weeks than anything ever … Continue reading
COVID in China – The worst job market in 20 years
China faces its worst job market in more than two decades, with tens of millions of people temporarily without work or unemployed in the first three months of 2020 and the number of jobs set to shrink by more than 10 million this year, according to UBS Group AG economists. About 70-80 million people in … Continue reading
COVID and the Economy – Could it be that the operation was successful but the patient died ?
In a typical business cycle, as money and credit expand in the economy, a surge in inflation eventually followed, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates in an effort to cool down the economy and control inflation. This typically led to a recession. This recession, or possibly depression, is government-induced as non-essential businesses remain closed … Continue reading
COVID – How is it impacting the global economy?
Every component of aggregate demand – consumption, capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented free fall. While most self-serving commentators have been anticipating a V-shaped downturn – with output falling sharply for one quarter and then rapidly recovering the next – it should now be clear that the COVID-19 crisis is something else entirely. The … Continue reading
Jobs after COVID in US – Retooled for the Twenty-First Century?
In my 2016 book, Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy, I told the story of how economic globalization caught the United States off-guard. For most of our history, we were a reasonably self-sufficient economy, with an expanding domestic market that was more than large enough to exploit economies of … Continue reading
Job Report in US, March 2020 – Employment fell by 701,000 even if the reference periods predated many COVID impacts
Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking … Continue reading
Job Report in US (ADP), March – Lost of 27,000 up to March 12, without full impact of COVID-19
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 27,000 Jobs in March; the March NER Utilizes Data Through March 12 and Does Not Reflect the Full Impact of COVID-19 on the Overall Employment Situation ROSELAND, N.J. – April 1, 2020 – Private sector employment decreased by 27,000 jobs from February to March according to … Continue reading
COVID in US – The St. Louis Fed’s back-of-the-Envelope Estimates : given the assumption of a constant labor force, 32.1%
As state and local governments implement social-distancing measures to suppress and contain the spread of COVID-19, many businesses are faced with a large decrease in sales and revenue. This slowdown of economic activity could inevitably lead to solvency and liquidity problems that result in workers being laid off. This negative shock does not equally affect … Continue reading
COVID-19 in US Viewed from the FED – Unemployment may soar to 30%
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product. Bullard called for a powerful fiscal response to replace the $2.5 trillion in lost income that quarter to … Continue reading
COVID-19 in US – Over 37 million U.S. jobs may be vulnerable to potential layoffs in the short term
Almost 56% of US production and non-supervisory jobs (about 59.5 million jobs) offer weekly incomes below the $802 weighted average weekly income for all such jobs. Together, those low-quality jobs offer a weighted average of $539 in weekly income, or just over $28,000 per year. There is a subset of these workers, in jobs often … Continue reading
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