Job Market Monitor
Business Cycle
Covid and Business Cycle Dating in US – A trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020 says NBER’s Committee
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession … Continue reading
The Seasons of Economic Cycle in US – Infographic
The United States is in the middle stage of the economic cycle… While the U.S. economy has grown over time, the growth has not been in a straight line. The variations in the pace of growth around the long-term trend are called economic cycles. Economic cycles have four distinct stages: recession, early (recovery), middle (mature), … Continue reading
US / AEI Economic Outlook: the current expansion is getting close to its end
By the long-run standard the current expansion, at 49 months (54 months by year-end, when growth is widely forecast to be 3 percent), is getting close to its end Continue reading
Who loses in the Great Recession? Those groups who lost in the recessions of the 1980s
“The labor market decline during Great Recession and its aftermath has been both deeper and longer than the early 1980s recession—indeed, the longest and deepest since the Great Depression” write Hilary Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller in Who Suffers During Recessions? published on econ.ucdavis.edu. (Adapted excerpts by Job Market Monitor follow) The labor market effects of the Great … Continue reading
Permanent Layoffs in Canada | Only around 40% are “rare” events, particularly among older workers
A new study by Statistics Canada by Garnett Picot, Zhengxi Lin and Wendy Pyper uses a new longitudinal data source on the separations of workers to address three issues: First, has there in fact been an increase in the permanent layoff rate in Canada in the 1990s, as one might anticipate given concerns about rising job instability? … Continue reading
U.S. | Less Than 6 out of 10 in employment, much worse than that of any of the other four recent recessions
The employment-population ratio is another useful measure for evaluating labor market conditions, as it provides a somewhat different perspective than the unemployment rate. The labor force—the denominator used in the calculation of the unemployment rate—may expand or contract in response to changes in the pace of economic activity. In contrast, the civilian noninstitutional population, the … Continue reading
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