Job Market Monitor
Aging
Aging Societies – They rely on immigrant for health-care workers while the world is short on them
The world is short on health-care workers. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) predicted a global shortfall of 10 million health workers of all types by 2030. In 2020, the global health workforce numbered 65 million, according to the WHO’s National Health Workforce Accounts, yet these workers are no match for the demand. As … Continue reading
Productivity and Aging – Aging economies are not puzzling from a theoretical perspective
Due to population aging, GDP growth per capita and GDP growth per working-age adult have become quite different among many advanced economies over the last several decades. Countries whose GDP growth per capita performance has been lackluster, like Japan, have done surprisingly well in terms of GDP growth per working-age adult. Indeed, from 1998 to … Continue reading
AI and Ageing Revolutions – The extent to which they alter our societies for good or for ill will very much depend on how we choose to respond
The world of work is getting older in advanced economies and increasingly in many emerging ones. Today, people between theages of 45 and 64 account for some 40 percent of the working-age population in OECD countries, up from 28 percent in 1990. Two powerful and persistent trends – longer lifespans and lower birth rates – … Continue reading
Aging Population – A demographic drag is coming but the consequences on growth will likely be less severe numbers suggest
As many countries complete the demographic transition, their populations age. While a growing working-age share thanks to aging has been a source for economic growth, contracting working-age shares now threaten to turn the former demographic dividend into a demographic drag. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of changes in working-age shares for economic growth. … Continue reading
Aging Baby Boomers in Canada – Their participation has surpassed earlier generations in their 60s
The large wave of baby boomers—individuals born between 1946 and 1965—accounted for 31% of the Canadian population in 2000, when they were in their prime ages of 35 to 54, and 24% of the total population in 2020, when they were older adults aged 55 to 74.1 Because of their sheer numbers, baby boomers have … Continue reading
The Great Demographic Reversal – A return of inflation, higher nominal interest rates, lessening inequality and higher productivity, but worsening fiscal problems
The rise of China to the status of economic superpower has been the dominant narrative of the last three decades. China’s rise as the main feature of globalisation, in conjunction with a beneficial sweet spot in demography, drove output up and inflation down in the advanced economies. But these trends are now reversing. China’s economic … Continue reading
Aging and Immigration in Europe – In addition to their integration into the labor force, the human capital of migrants is thus also a major determinant of their economic impact
This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration … Continue reading
Population Aging in Canada – Would need to settle 2.85 million new Canadians immediately
If Canada was to rely solely on immigration to address the impending labour force shortage, it would need to settle 2.85 million new Canadians immediately in order to return to the 2019 OAD ratio. And arrivals would need, on average, to exceed 1.7 million people annually over the next decade to maintain that OAD ratio. … Continue reading
Aging Workforce in Canada – The ratio of younger workers to older workers declined from 2.7 in 1996 to 1.0 in 2018
Over the past two decades, the share of the employed population aged 55 and over increased significantly. This study uses Census of Population and Labour Force Survey data to examine the changing age composition of workers within the most prevalent occupations (with at least 10,000 workers), as well as the occupations that are increasing and … Continue reading
Aging – Likely a transitory phenomenon in high-income countries
Will the population of today’s high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that … Continue reading
Global Aging – The trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency
When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the … Continue reading
Aging Canada – The gap between the number of children and the number of seniors is growing
The gap between the number of children and the number of seniors is growing The most recent population estimates point to the continued rapid aging of the Canadian population. This trend is especially driven by fertility rates below the replacement level, which has been the situation in recent decades, and an increased life expectancy. The … Continue reading
Aging Workforce – Participation of older workers would have to rise significantly to stem the decline in aggregate participation IMF says
Population growth in advanced economies is slowing, life expectancy is rising, and the number of elderly people is soaring. Because older workers participate less in the labor market, the aging of the population could slow growth and, in many cases, threaten the sustainability of social security systems. But, as our research in Chapter 2 of … Continue reading
Canada – An impending workforce gap
Canada has an impending workforce gap that will be hard to bridge using traditional measures. Workforce expansion has been an especially strong driver of growth in Canada. But with twice as many employees aged 55+ today as in 1997, this will change in coming decades. To grow our workforce at the same rate moving forward, … Continue reading
Aging – Japan’s recent experiences
As the third largest economy in the world and a precursor of global trends in population aging, Japan’s recent experiences provide important lessons regarding how demographic shifts affect the labor market and individuals’ economic well-being. On the whole, the labor market has shown a remarkable stability during the recent financial crisis, despite decades of economic … Continue reading
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