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Academic Literature
Vulnerable Groups – An analytical framework for Active Labor Market Policy (ALMP)
People from vulnerable groups face considerable challenges in securing sustainable employment due to factors such as limited labor market experience and various forms of discrimination. While active labor market policies (ALMP) have been implemented to address these challenges, they have not sufficiently improved sustainable employment outcomes for these groups—possibly because of inadequate consideration regarding how … Continue reading
Germany’s EV Transition – Current macroeconomic policies undermine it
The electric vehicle (EV) transition portends wrenching change in Germany’s export-dependent economy, with potentially severe job losses in core occupations in the automotive industry and a drastic restructuring of employment in and outside automotive supply chains. The EV transition is made even more challenging by the growing competition from Chinese (EV) producers, both in China … Continue reading
Offshoring form US Companies – Just over 30%, a 3 percentage points higher than seven years ago, or a 10% increase
US-based employers expanded employment abroad faster than domestically for the past 7 years. This is particularly pronounced among Tech and Consulting firms. Highly remote-suitable roles have grown 42% faster outside the US than within the US since 2019, while there is no difference in growth rates for roles that are not remote-suitable. Cost saving considerations … Continue reading
Immigration Research – Researchers with pro-immigration views reported more positive impacts, largely driven by methodological choices
Why studies based on the same data may reach different conclusions In empirical research, it is common for studies on the same topic to produce vastly different results. Take, for example, the debate on minimum wage policies: while many studies conclude that raising the minimum wage reduces the employment of affected workers, others find no … Continue reading
Labour Force Survey in Canada – What about non-permanent residents (NPRs) ?
To understand the labour force survey one must begin by appreciating the limitations of its scope. The estimates do not apply to all Canadian residents, but rather are for a more restricted group. That group differs from Canada’s total population of 41,012,563 people as of April 1, 2024 by excluding the following:5 Persons under 15 … Continue reading
Canada-US Labour Productivity Gap – The top 10% of the income distribution accounts for two-thirds
Gross domestic product (GDP) per adult in Canada fluctuated between 70% and 90% of that of the United States between 1960 and 2020. Behind this gap lie large, systematic differences in relative incomes across the Canadian and US income distributions. There are small differences in average incomes among lower percentiles of the income distribution while … Continue reading
Beveridge Curves – Once the labor market crosses back over the threshold, further reductions in inflation are likely to be more costly
This paper reexamines the Phillips and Beveridge curves to explain the inflation surge in the U.S. during the 2020s. We argue that the pre-surge consensus regarding both curves requires substantial revision. We propose that the Inverse-L (INV-L) New Keynesian Phillips Curve replace the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The INV-L curve is piecewise-linear and more … Continue reading
Wage Growth in Canada – Composition-adjusted wage growth significantly below the average growth
Wage growth is a key indicator that central banks monitor because labour costs are an important component of production costs and inflation. However, average wage growth can be a misleading measure of inflationary pressures. This is because it is a simple average of the wages earned by millions of people who have different skills, levels … Continue reading
Recessions in US – Labor market downturns fall most on young and less-educated workers
This paper provides empirical estimates on the labor market responses to a large number of recessions and crises, including estimates that use microdata to trace the propagation and incidence of such crises. Our results draw on two different data sets, each built from quarterly labor force surveys. The distribution of the severity and duration of … Continue reading
Minimum Wages in the 21st Century – They have had limited direct employment effects
Minimum wage policies have evolved from their initial introduction, and have become an important tool used by many countries to address various economic and social challenges. The debate and perspectives on minimum wages have also evolved considerably, influenced by both changing economic theories and empirical research. Although economists were highly skeptical about the benefits of … Continue reading
Remote Work in Call-Centers in US – The hourly calls of formerly on-site workers fell by 4 percent relative to that of already remote workers
Before the Covid-19 pandemic, less than a fifth of Americans worked remotely. Even in seemingly remotable tasks like call-center work, remote work was uncom- mon. This rarity was surprising since most workers were willing to take pay cuts to work at home (Mas and Pallais, 2017), and working remotely seemed to boost productivity in call-centers … Continue reading
Occupational Licensing and Retirement in US – They are less likely to choose to change careers but more likely to reduce work hours in transitioning out of the workforce
Ways of leaving the labor force has been an understudied aspect of labor market outcomes. Labor market institutions such as occupational licensing may influence how individuals transition to retirement. When and how workers transition from career jobs to full retirement may contribute to pre- and post-retirement well-being. Previous investigations of retirement pathways focused on the … Continue reading
Technologies – Will likely accelerate the de-routinization of work
Frontier technologies are likely to accelerate the de-routinization of work The rapid evolution of new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), has sparked questions about whether these emerging frontier technologies might increasingly substitute employees performing complex tasks. In contrast to such fears, a new IZA discussion paper by Melanie Arntz, Sabrina Genz, Terry Gregory, Florian Lehmer … Continue reading
Demographics – Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100
Modelling research published in The Lancet uses data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to project global, regional and national population changes over the next century. Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future … Continue reading
The Evolution of Work and Tasks from 1950 to 2000 in US – A substantial fraction of total changes occurring within narrowly defined job titles
Using the text from job ads, we introduce a new dataset to describe the evolution of work from 1950 to 2000. We show that the transformation of the US labor market away from routine cognitive and manual tasks and toward nonroutine interactive and analytic tasks has been larger than prior research has found, with a … Continue reading
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