Job Market Monitor
A Closer Look
COVID in US – Only 34 percent of jobs can plausibly be performed at home
Evaluating the economic impact of “social distancing” measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a number of fundamental questions about the modern economy: How many jobs can be performed at home? What share of total wages are paid to such jobs? How does the scope for working from home vary across cities or … Continue reading
COVID in US – The St. Louis Fed’s back-of-the-Envelope Estimates : given the assumption of a constant labor force, 32.1%
As state and local governments implement social-distancing measures to suppress and contain the spread of COVID-19, many businesses are faced with a large decrease in sales and revenue. This slowdown of economic activity could inevitably lead to solvency and liquidity problems that result in workers being laid off. This negative shock does not equally affect … Continue reading
COVID and Global Household Debt – Already over $12 trillion higher than in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis
COVID-19 Exacerbates Household Debt Burdens Global household debt tops $47 trillion—over $12 trillion higher than in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis More than three-fourths of the 75 countries in our sample now have higher household debt-to-GDP ratios than in 2007 Anticipated COVID-19-related job losses imply a massive jump in household debt relative … Continue reading
Future of Work – Towards a skills-based, rather than degree-based labour market
The rise of tech is currently transforming the labour market, leading to the automation of some jobs and tasks on the one hand and the emergence of new kinds on the other. Proactively preparing for this new reality requires an in-depth, granular understanding of these changes and their impact on jobs and employment. LinkedIn data … Continue reading
Changing Curriculum – We’re kind of stuck. We have to unstick that
Beth Cobert: Our work involves engaging employers with community colleges and other training resources in ways that can shape things at a pace that fits with what business needs, as opposed to a more traditional academic cycle of semesters. Today, changing your curriculum really fast means you did it in two years. The employers say, … Continue reading
Qualifications Passport – Preparing for recognition of refugees’ qualifications
In November 2019, UNESCO’s General Conference in Paris gathered higher education ministers and other high-ranking representatives. High on the agenda was an introduction to the UNESCO Qualifications Passport for Refugees and Vulnerable Migrants. The Qualifications Passport methodology, developed by NOKUT (Norwegian ENIC-NARIC), was first introduced in Norway in 2016. Based on the Norwegian experience, the … Continue reading
Future of Work – Five stereotypical claims that are often advanced in debates
In this comprehensive but readable commentary, our Director Jim Stanford challenges five stereotypical claims that are often advanced in debates over the future of work: Work is not disappearing; it can’t. Technology is not accelerating. “Gigs” aren’t even new. Technology is often more about relationships than productivity. Skills are not a magic bullet. On #5: … Continue reading
The Future of Work – Differences in robotization across industries and countries
Akamatsu’s “flying geese” paradigm describes this shifting international division of labor based on dynamic comparative advantage. American, European, and Japanese firms moved a lot of their production to developing Asia and Latin America, first helping countries like Malaysia and Chile, then others like China and Mexico, and then others like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Lower-wage countries … Continue reading
Future of Work – The challenge is not that they create too few jobs, but rather that too few workers have the skills
The challenge that all new technologies pose is not that they create too few jobs, but rather that too few workers have the skills to fill them. Just as some jobs benefit from the new technologies, while others become obsolete, so, too, some skills become more valuable, while others are substitutable. The automobile boosted the … Continue reading
Economics – The big story over the last decade
Low interest rates have left the Fed backed into a corner David Wessel One of the biggest economic stories of the 2010s is interest rates and how low they are. At the beginning of the decade, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds would average around 5% during the 2010s. … Continue reading
Two Recessions and Recoveries in US – The trajectories side-by-side
The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was one of the deepest downturns of the U.S. economy since World War II. Triggered by crises in the housing and financial markets, the recession evokes memories of homes in foreclosure, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and bailouts for businesses in the auto, banking and financial sectors. The subsequent expansion began … Continue reading
Skills in US – Talent is America’s most precious resource
In his recent book, The Gift of Global Talent, Harvard economist William R. Kerr argues that talent is the world’s most precious resource. Across America’s network of regional economies, this is undoubtedly true. The collective knowledge and capabilities of the U.S. workforce is worth an estimated $240 trillion—four times more valuable than the country’s physical … Continue reading
Apprenticeships in UK – A steady rise in the number of starts at higher-education
The DfE publication included final figures on the number and type of apprenticeships that were started over the 2018/19 academic year. It confirmed one trend that we have continuously identified: the fall in apprenticeship starts at Level 2, and the steady rise in the number of starts at higher-education (Level 4+) levels, as the chart … Continue reading
Future of work – How it sidelines worker voices
This blind spot that exists toward these vulnerable workers reflects in part the long-run erosion of worker power and the precipitous decline in the reach of unions, rising inequality, the fissuring of the workplace, and the impact of globalization and technology on the “hollowing out” of the job market. Many workers who hold jobs most … Continue reading
Future of Work – 18 to 34 hold almost 40% of the US jobs that could disappear in the next decade
With each passing year, parents are getting more worried about how their children will fare once it’s time to take that step from school to the workforce. They have good reason to fret. Some 17 million Americans under age 30—about one third of the under-30 population—are saddled with student debt. Many are worried about their … Continue reading
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