Job Report in Canada – Surging population growth and GDP is on track to post a 7th consecutive per-capita decline

The Canadian labour market data is notoriously volatile, but details underlying the January upside employment growth (and downside unemployment rate) surprise were also firm. The increase in hours worked is consistent with GDP ticking higher early in 2024, and adds to early signs that housing markets have perked up. Growth in the economy still looks softer accounting for surging population growth. Canadian GDP is on track to post a 7th consecutive per-capita decline in Q1/2024. But stronger than feared economic data both in Canada and abroad are leaving central banks with flexibility to be patient before starting to ease off the monetary policy brakes. The data today will reinforce that near-term interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are unlikely. Our own base case assumes the first interest rate cut from the BoC in June.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story @  RBC Royal Bank