Europe / Moderate growth will translate only gradually into job creation says EC

The European Commission rolled out its autumn forecast on Tuesday. There was plenty of optimism, but it was guarded.

Olli Rehn, the EU’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, declared: “There are increasing signs that the European economy has reached a turning point”. He spied confidence gaining strength.

Growth in the eurozone in 2014 is forecast to be 1.1%. That is less than the commission predicted in May, but private consumption has remained subdued and credit in many countries is tight.

But the news for the 26 million out of work in the EU was bleak. The recovery in economic activity is expected “to translate only gradually into job creation”, said Mr Rehn.

In the eurozone, it is expected to remain at a record high of 12.2% this year and next. That, also, is a revision upwards from 12.1%.

The hope was that jobless levels would decline next year as the recovery took hold, but European officials are now not so sure.

Indeed, it is possible that the number out of work in the eurozone will surpass 20 million. The best that European officials could offer was a modest decline in unemployment in 2015 to 11.8% in those countries that use the euro.

‘Lost generation’

Of course, there will be wide differences between countries.

Unemployment will stay low in Germany and Austria. It is falling in Ireland, and there are some hopeful signs in Portugal.

But the outlook in the weaker countries remains fragile.

Chosen excerpts by Job Market Monitor. Read the whole story at

via BBC News – Europe: A jobless recovery?.